No Inflation? The Corn & Ethanol Report

We started off the day with NFIB Business Optimism Index (APR) at 5:00 A.M., Redbook YoY (08/May) at 7:55 A.M., ISM New York Index (APR) at 8:45 A.M., JOLT’s Job Openings (MAR) at 9:00 A.M., Fed Williams Speech at 9:30 A.M., 42-Day Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Brainard Speech at 11:00 A.M., Fed Daly Speech and 3-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed Bostic Speech at 12:15 P.M., Fed Harker Speech at 1:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.

green-leafed plants

Image Source: Unsplash

On the Corn front, prices have risen roughly 50% in 2021, with a bushel costing more than twice it did a year ago. With record climbing corn it has been one of the sharpest risers in the broad rally in raw materials that is forcing companies to boost prices for goods and fueling concerns among investors that inflation could hobble the post-pandemic recovery. Look at lumber prices and Americans can expect to pay more for items at the grocery store as well as at the pump. Corn is a key ingredient in making products ranging from tortilla chips and chicken wings to bourbon and Coca-Cola. About 40% of the U.S. corn crop is blended in motor fuel. Now getting back to China which has bought $400 million of U.S. corn. 1.36 million tons of corn has been marked for delivery this marketing year that opens September 1, and 11.38 million tons have been shipped this marketing year, while an additional 11.986 million have been purchased and await shipment. China is forecast to buy a record $31.5 billion of U.S. farm exports this fiscal year. In the overnight the July corn is currently trading at 712 ¾ which is 1 cent higher. The trading range has been 715 to 703 ¼. We may see a tug-o-war in prices today as some trader’s mat square up even further before tomorrow’s USDA Supply/Demand report.

On the Ethanol front, exports to China soar while they plummet in Brazil. Exports to China spiked in March despite Beijing’s tariffs, while exports to Brazil plummeted amid tariffs. Renewable Fuels Association chief Geoff Cooper says exports to China took off. Resulting in 48 million gallons going to China up 31%, Brazil a different story down 32% from March. Other big markets like Canada saw an 85% boost and India a 13% hike. No trades were posted in the overnight. The June contract settled at 2.34 and is currently showing no market with Open interest remaining at 20 contracts.

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