We kicked off the day with Factory Orders MoM, and Factory Orders ex Transportation at 9:00 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 3-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Dairy Products at 2:00 P.M., Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M., and Total Vehicle Sales.

The November jobs report showed that the US economy added just 12,000 jobs in October. Additionally, the September jobs figure was once again revised lower, down 31,000 jobs from the initial September print to 223,000 jobs.  The October jobs figure was also 111,000 jobs under the consensus estimate and the lowest since December 2020. Private payrolls fell by 28,000, while government payrolls rose 40,000 to maintain a positive figure. While non-farm payroll growth plummeted, the Household survey showed that the unemployment rate was unchanged from September at 4.1% and the U-6 employment rate was also unchanged at 7.7%. However, both were well above last year’s rates of 3.8% unemployment and 7.2% U-6 unemployment. TGI Fridays is the latest restaurant chain to file Chapter 11 bankruptcy. We are all feeling the pain of food and energy prices in the economy continues to spiral downward.

Photo by Trisha Downing on Unsplash

On the Weather Front

We are all watching developments of Tropical Storm Eighteen, as the trajectory cones vary the movement of where it will penetrate when it makes landfall in the Gulf of Mexico.

NOAA Drought Outlook Features Regional Improvement Amid Upcoming Rainfall; Abnormal Warmth Probable in November:

The Central US forecast is a bit wetter across the Southern Plains next week as accumulation of .50-1.oo” expands into the TX/OK panhandles and western KS. Otherwise, inundating rainfall lies ahead for the E Plains and Midwest into the middle part of next week. Totals in excess of 4” are offered to E OK, E KS, AR, MO, IL, and southern WI. NOAA’s updated 30-day drought outlook shows that soaking nature of nearby rain will end drought across the Great Lakes region and E KS/MO. However, no change to currently wide moisture deficits is forecast in the Dakota’s and MT, and so HRW crop ratings are expected to stay above average into dormancy. Warmer than normal temps occur throughout the next 10 days and are probable in the second half of November.

CBOT Corn Rallies on Persistent Mexican Demand; US Competitive in World Market:

The Dec CBOT corn ended firm and near session highs. The US election looms large, but fundamentally there remains a battle between massive US export demand and highly favorable weather in Argentina/ S Brazil where weather becomes crop critical in early December. Mexico secured another 28 Mil Bu from the US. Fob premiums in Brazil scored new seasonal highs, with Ukrainian premiums up $.10/Bu this week. Ag Resources (ARC) expects US export demand remaining strong and lends support on breaks into late winter. ARC showed a graphic display of Brazil’s daily cash corn index, and seasonal trends are positive until safrinha pollination weather is known in April – the message being South American corn prices are very unlikely to weaken. Yet, broad supply fears are absent, and an Argentine crop of 50-52 MMT’s is probable in 2025 amid weak La Nina development. A weakening Brazilian real aids producer income/planting intentions. Be prepared for range bound trade. Sub-$4.10 spot CBOT corn is a place to scale into end user coverage.

Friday’s CBOT grain open interest surged with corn up 16,175 contracts, soybeans up 8,017 contracts, soybean oil up 14,156 contracts, soybean meal up 6,051 contracts, and Chicago wheat down 11 contracts.

More By This Author:

Grains Report - Friday, Nov. 1
Softs Report - Thursday, Oct. 31
Grains Report - Wednesday, Oct. 30