• Natural Gas marches higher in a bounce off the $2.10 barrier.
• Traders are focussing on summer futures contracts to salvage the lost first quarter.
• The US Dollar Index is steady ahead of the ECB, US GDP, Durable Goods, and Jobless Claims.

Natural Gas (XNG/USD) sunk to a substantial low earlier this week near $2.10. Meanwhile, the course has reversed within the futures markets, with summer expiries trading over $1 higher against the more near-term expiries. This means that for Europe it is cheaper to buy Gas now than in four to six months, when it would normally refill up its gas storage. This is making Gas traders scramble to still make a buck after the lackluster to negative performance in the first weeks of 2024. 

The US Dollar (USD) is holding ground in the US Dollar Index near 103, ahead of a big batch of data releases later this Thursday. In just a time span of around 30 minutes, the European Central Bank (ECB) will release its first rate decision for 2024, together with the release of US GDP, US Durable Goods and weekly Jobless Claims. While the Greenback is caught between two important technical elements (cap and floor), a breakout could be seen on the back of the above-mentioned catalysts. 

Natural Gas is trading at $2.30 per MMBtu at the time of writing.  
 

Natural Gas market movers: Traders looking forward for profit

• Benchmark futures for February and March are currently trading $1 lower against the June and July contracts. This comes with traders seeing Europe heading back into the Gas markets by the summer, in order to refill Gas storage. 
• The Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert Fico said that Ukraine is open to letting Russian Gas flow beyond 2024, which would mean inflow into Austria and Italy is still guaranteed. 
• Temperatures in Europe are soaring with very mild temperatures at hand for the weekend and next week. In London, even 12.5 degrees Celsius is projected, with near 20 degrees in Barcelona, which is very mild for this time of year.
• Near 15:30 GMT, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due to release the weekly Gas Storage Changes. Previous was a drawdown of 154 billion cubic feet of Gas. 
   

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Recovery makes sense

Natural Gas got oversold earlier this week, with the commodity rebounding now in a natural move. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is heading back to more normal levels while Gas prices are off the lows. More upside looks granted, though do not expect any exaggerated moves seeing the overall tepid outlook for 2024 in terms of global growth and economic strength. 

On the upside, Natural Gas is facing quite some pivotal levels to get back to. First is the low of December 13th at $2.20 which broke on Wednesday. Next is the intermediary level near $2.48. Once that area gets hit, expect to see a test near $2.57 at the purple line.

A break below the yellow line at $2.10 means big issues for Natural Gas, with a fresh multi-year low. First level to look for on the downside is near $1.51, the low of June 2021. Further pre-Ukraine levels would come in sight as well with $1.00 up for grabs in the longer-term

(Click on image to enlarge)

XNG/USD (Daily Chart)

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