Natural Gas futures on the Nymex had a volatile week before closing 2.8% higher than the previous one at $5.07. EIA reported on Thursday another build of 26 Bcf in working underground stocks for the week ended November 12. The refill season is being prolonged and total inventory is currently at 3,644 Bcf, 7.8% lower y/y, only 2.2% below the 5-year average.

Since our last analysis two weeks ago we had been anticipating ranges moving further lower touching and testing the $4.80 support level twice already. We now want to see this level offering resistance, this might take a few weeks before happen, as the Daily MACD is looking ready to cross bullish which will give some momentum to this market. The same ranges from latest resistance somewhere around $5.40 will increase our profits.

We have no interest whatsoever in buying operations. We are done for the season and we are only selling rallies on exhaustion on near term charts since we identified a ceiling back in September. The market has offered us more than 50% in real-time trading since the beginning of the latest uptrend and another 30% in downtrend already. We now want to see the continuation of it, with prices at $4.00 even $3.50 for the shoulder contracts in spring. We will proceed cautiously staying on the near term charts as macro is getting tougher to predict because of covid resurgence in the northern hemisphere.

Rigs are keep on coming online, total inventory is already looking normal after two whole years of consolidation. U.S. macro data and the Dollar against majors to be routinely monitored. Daily, 4hour, 15min MACD and RSI are pointing to entry areas.