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We kickoff the day with Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM & YoY, House Price Index, and House Price Index MoM & YoY at 8:00 A.M., CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales MoM, New Home Sales, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index, Richmond Fed Services Index, and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 9:009 A.M., Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index and Dallas Fed Services Index at 9:30 A.M., 2-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed Bowman Speech at 12:30 P.M., API Energy Stocks, Building Permits Final, and Building Permits Final MoM at 3:30 P.M.

On the Corn Front Final September 1^st corn ending stocks are estimated at 1,409 Mil Bu, 43 Mil Bu below the USDA’s forecast in early September. The US corn balance sheet has been allowed to loosen following years of high prices and weakening export disappearance. This was aided by record Brazilian output in summer. ARC pegs Jun-Aug exports at a 10-year low 343 Mil Bu. Following the release of census data in early September, the market is in tune with final annual export disappearance.  Ethanol production data is done mid-September. All that’s left is Q4 domestic feed/residual consumption. A bullish surprise is possible with better than expected flash sales yesterday. ARC projects Jun-Aug feed/residual at 647 Mil Bu. USDA’s annual forecast implies Jun-Aug feed/residual of just 596 Mil Bu- the lowest since 2016. The ARC’s annual feed/residual forecast is 50 Mil Bu above the USDA’s, and pace analysis through May implies an even larger increase is possible. Recall that Sep-May feed/residual totaled, 4,829 Mil Bu, down 2.4% year-over-year. USDSA projects annual feed/residual to be down 5.2% year-over-year. Assuming annual final feed/residual is down only 2-3% year-over-year, final YS corn stocks drop to 1.325 to 1.265 Bil Bu! USDA’s balance sheet implies a major contraction in residual disappearance in the Jun-Aug period. Market focus has turned rightfully to 23/24 supply & demand, but actual old crop carryover really matters.  Corn open interest rose another 8,832 contracts in yesterday’s action and reports also showed 15% of the corn crop harvest is complete and good-to-excellent ratings grew 2% to 53%. Harvest yields have been sketchy at best so we have a ways to go to have a final tally on yields. In the overnight electronic session the December corn is currently trading at 479 ¾ which is 1 and a ¼ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 483 ½ to 478 ¾.

On the Ethanol Front Erin Voegele with Ethanol Producer Magazine reports total corn consumed for alcohol and other uses was at 504 million bushels in July, up 2% when compared to June and up 1% from July 2022. Usage included 92% for alcohol and 8% for other purposes. Corn consumed for alcohol production reached 454 million bushels in July, up3% when compared to the previous month and up 2% when compared in June and up 1% from July 2022. Usage included 92% for alcohol and 8% for other purposes. More stats can be found in Voegele’s story in Ethanol Producer Magazine. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.

Have A Great Trading Day!

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