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Well, Trump’s long-telegraphed “Liberation Day” has landed — and with it, he’s vaporized $2 trillion in market cap and yanked more than a few traders straight out of their risk books. The tariffs came in hotter than even the most bearish whisper numbers, and the result is a full-spectrum asset unwind. U.S. equities are getting clubbed, with the S&P 500 flirting with a 5% drawdown, the Nasdaq bleeding 6%, and small caps getting wrecked to the tune of 6.6%. This isn’t your garden-variety growth scare — this is a full-blown macro gut punch, delivered courtesy of Washington.

But here's another kick in the pants: the “DOGE Shock” is hitting simultaneously to the tariff growth recession scare. Federal layoffs just posted the biggest single-month spike in over three decades, concentrated across the Deep Tri-State corridor (DC, Virginia, Maryland). It's the kind of fiscal contraction that slams into the labor market right when markets are screaming for stimulus. And instead of policy support, we’re getting tariffs and austerity.

This is exactly the wrong mix. Tariffs are inflationary. Government spending cuts are deflationary. Put them together, and you’ve got stagflationary risk written all over your terminal. And unfortunately, it won’t be fiscal policy doing the heavy lifting here — not yet. The White House is swinging the tariff bat, not a stimulus stick. Any tax cuts? Pure theory until the Treasury tallies the tariff receipts and decides whether there’s enough fiscal room to sugarcoat the pain.

That leaves the Fed holding the bag. Again.

And markets know it. Front-end yields are tanking, Fed Funds futures are racing higher, and rate-cut odds are exploding. The Fed may be “data-dependent” in name, but the market is about to rewrite the data for them. The clock is ticking.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is caught in a tailspin. The trade-weighted DXY cracked to year-to-date lows earlier in the session as traders priced in slower growth, softer consumption, and the higher probability of Fed cuts. Yes, it’s bounced slightly off the lows — but is still well underwater on the current trade cycle.. EURUSD pounced toward levels not seen since October, and USDJPY is a one-way train to 145. ( more detailed write-up later as I think the dollar sell-off eases a bit against the EURO, but it likely has more run to run vs the JPY)

Gold? You’d expect it to rip — and it did. But after tagging new all-time highs, the metal ran into a brick wall of profit-taking. Crowded longs bailed to cover equity margin calls, triggering a classic deleveraging move. It’s a “sell what’s green to pay for what’s red” moment. Still, with the Fed likely getting dragged into rate cuts, gold’s pullback looks like an entry point in disguise — that $3,050–3,075 zone could be the next big reload zone for macro longs.

Oil is also unravelling. Crude futures collapsed as recession trades took center stage. A tariff-driven U.S. growth scare is fundamentally incompatible with bullish crude positioning — and the market knows it. Brent broke key support, and WTI is now eyeing $65 . It’s not just about global demand — it’s the realization that supply tightness doesn’t matter much if the U.S. consumer gets sidelined by recession and layoffs.

Bottom line? The market has voted, and it’s clear: the U.S. is wearing the most pain from Trump’s tariff reset. And while the geopolitical chessboard may shift over the next few days, the message today is brutally simple — this is a domestic asset repricing, and it’s only just begun.

Eventually, someone will step in and buy the dip. They always do. But trying to front-run that moment now? That’s like standing in front of a freight train in full reverse. Stay nimble. Stay liquid. Don’t trust the first bounce. And for goodness sake, don’t get caught chasing ghosts after all, we are barely through the opening act.

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