Markets signal more Fed rates cuts ahead. After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, Fed funds futures are pricing in high odds that the central bank will ease monetary policy again at the next two policy meetings remaining in 2025. The policy-sensitive 2-year yield is trading well below the current target-rate range, which equates with expectations for more rate cuts. Meanwhile, TMC Research’s Fed funds model is indicating that policy remains moderately tight, which implies the central bank will continue to ease.

China kept its benchmark interest rate steady. The no-change decision is in line with expectations and marks the fourth time that the country’s central bank left lending rates unchanged.

Gold rose to a new record high on Monday — nearly $3724 per ounce in early trading today. “I would expect gold to reach new record highs this week with Fed officials likely to indicate further rate cuts, but also being data dependent on the pace and magnitude of cuts,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

The US economy is highly dependent on the top-20% of earners, says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “The economy’s prospects are tethered to the fortunes and spending of the well-to-do. Those in the top 20% of the income distribution are driving the economic train.”

US third-quarter GDP nowcast is a strong +3.3%, according to the Sep .17 update of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model. If correct, output will match the rate posted for Q2.

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