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We kickoff the day with Durable Goods Orders MoM, Chicago Fed Activity Index, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM, Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM at 7:30 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., Kansas Fed Composite Index and Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:00 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 30 Year TIPS Auction and Jackson Hole Symposium at 12:00 P.M.

On the Corn Front record heat across much of the Midwest is expected to last today and tomorrow, then temperatures will cool to more seasonable levels by the weekend. Brazilian corn/soybean exports are record large with corn growing with logistical capacity to load out additional tonnages in September and October being challenged. Amid long wait times, importers are shifting their supply back to the US. China has been a massive new buyer of Brazilian corn with commitment data showing at least 8 MMT’s on the books, China imported roughly 13-15 MMT’s of Brazilian corn 2023/24. The PROFARMER CROP TOUR reported an Illinois corn yield of 193.7 BPA which was better than last year’s 190.7 BPA and the 3-Year average of 193.1 BPA. The PROFARMER TOUR concludes today and we will have their final tally tomorrow. After that we will look at Crop Progress on Monday, September 12^th Crop Production USDA Supply Demand and WASDE data and may still be guessing going into the combine. With this year’s early and late season dryness could leave the US with similar yield results. The one item that any August crop tour has difficulty assessing is seed size and weight. Shallow kernel sizes lead to more seeds per bushel and lower yields. Weather fears with the hot and dry finish of the 2023 growing season will produce shallow kernel/seeds that again harms yield potential. And that is not even talking about the fear that tar spot disease could grow. In the overnight electronic session the December corn is currently trading at 488 ¾ which is 1 ¾ cents lower. The trading range has been 489 ½ to 485 ¾.

On the Ethanol Front production slipped to 1.048 tbd last week, down from the 1.069 the previous week, however up 6% from last year. Overall corn usage was just below the pace needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.225 Bil. Bu. Implied gasoline usage was up 1% on the week and 5.6% from a year ago. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.

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