Is This The Greatest Stock Market Rally Of All-Time?

The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance. ~ Ed Seykota

Good morning!

In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at signs suggesting oil is going to move lower in the short-term but much higher in the long-term. We then look at the ridiculous moves going on in the big tech names and compare them to past speculative bubbles before diving into a recent IB report exploring structural systematic pessimism, what it means, and what could be causing it. And finally, we end by checking out a lithium play with strong secular tailwinds, plus more…

Let’s dive in.

***click charts to enlarge***

  1. Last Wednesday, I shared this chart on the twitters and wrote “Brent oil time spread suggesting we may see a breakdown lower from its compressed range. A bounce in the $DXY would help fuel this move. Need a setup and breakout confirmation from the tape now.” The next day we got the setup and then Friday gave us the confirmation. Expect crude to move lower in the short-term. Longer-term, crude is setting up for a monster bull cycle. The Capital Cycle all but guarantees it.

  1. This chart from Citi’s Proprietary positioning/sentiment model shows the market is giving its best effort to imitate 99’ (h/t to @tihobrkan).

  1. This great chart from BCA Research shows just how silly the run in big tech stocks has gotten. It’s now at 99’-00’ Nasdaq 100 peak insanity levels. Jesse Stine talks about this craziness in his latest public letter which you can find here.

  1. So this is interesting… Employee compensation as a % of US business value-added is hockey sticking higher after being in a secular decline for the last 15+ years. I need to look into how this data is put together to see if there’s anything creating noise here but this could be a very important trend (shoot me an email if you have any insights!).
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