It’s fair to say that inflation has been one of the key economic buzzwords of 2022 (along with interest rates).

Will the Federal Reserve’s last two big rate hikes help? Will the latest government inflation bill matter? Perhaps. But one key ingredient may have peaked a couple months back: Commodities.

Today we look at a long-term chart the CRB Commodity Index. As you can see, commodities had a very bullish 2-year run higher.

However, price tested falling resistance at (1) in June and reversed lower. That peak also coincided with its highest ever momentum reading (using percent above the 80-week moving average). Previous momentum peaks resulted in big declines in the CRB Index.

Consumers are hoping this momentum peak also produces a fall in commodity prices.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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