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We kicked off the day with Fed Kashkari Speech at 3:00 A.M., Durable Goods Orders MoM, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM, Durable Goods ex Defense MoM, and Non Defense Goods Ex Air at 7:30 A.M., S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM & YoY, House Price Index, and House Price Index MoM & YoY at 8:00 A.M., CB Consumer Confidence at 9:00 A.M., Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 9:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 2-Year Note Auction & Money Supply at 12:00 P.M., Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M., and Fed Williams Speech at 7:00 P.M.

Bar Chart reports the latest Commitment of Traders Report, released May 20^, 2025, showed managed money traders have shifted to a net short position in corn futures, holding approximately 279,000 contracts short, a swing from their long position of 428,000 contracts in February, according to CFTC data. This move to net short typically signals bearish sentiment, as trader’s bet on falling prices, often driven by expectations of ample supply with favorable weather, like the US crop forecast of 15.8 billion bushels. Manage money traders are well aware of the seasonal selling pattern, where corn prices often dip post-planting in May and June to reduced demand and harvest expectations, as seen in historical December corn futures chart trends. Compared to mid-May 2024, when managed money held a net short position of 71,000 contracts, this year’s net short position, 103,000, is larger, suggesting a stronger bearish conviction, possibly due to higher acreage reported in the May WASDE. Brazil’s safrinha crop forecast has been boosted recently, India is cutting soybean acreage in favor of corn and sugarcane. With the livestock population pegged last year at 1950’s levels (take in current human population) and still at historic lows, normal feed stocks expected to grow if not used for other purposes. Ethanol is thrivingwith current margins and exports, however, it will not fill the insurmountable void as traders at the moment are banking on. Exports are still expected to be robust into Jul. If it turns out we have a dramatic weather change , as seen for now is the only gamechanger this far in the growing season, and nothing is currently on the horizon. Weather improves for US, EU, and Chinese crops. Remember we have Export Inspections and Crop Progress today.

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