IMF Warns That US Tariffs Portend A Slowdown In Global Economic Growth

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The Dow Jones (US30) Index was up 2.66% at Tuesday’s close. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.51%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) increased by 2.63%. US stocks rose on Tuesday as hopes of an easing trade war between the US and China lifted investor sentiment after a sharp drop the previous day. Meanwhile, concerns over President Trump’s attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell persisted, contributing to recent market volatility.

Technology stocks led the rise, with Tesla shares up 4.6% ahead of its earnings release, although the company has fallen 40% in the period since. On the earnings side, General Electric shares jumped 6.1% after the release of results, while Verizon shares added 0.6% after the earnings release.

Producer prices for manufactured goods (a leading indicator of consumer inflation) in Canada rose by 0.5% month-over-month in March 2025, following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in February and above market forecasts expecting a 0.3% increase. This marked the sixth consecutive monthly increase. Excluding energy and petroleum products, CPI rose by 1%. On an annualized basis, producer prices rose by 4.7%.

The IMF has warned that rising tariffs in the US mark the start of a new global era of slowing growth. President Trump has imposed massive import duties since January, triggering retaliatory tariffs and raising trade barriers to levels not seen since the Great Depression. The IMF has cut its global growth forecast 2024 to 2.8% from 3.3% and expects further weakening through 2026. The US will be hit hardest, with growth in 2025 falling to 1.8 % from 2.7 %. Mexico, China, and the Eurozone will also feel the effects. Although Trump claims the tariffs will revive US manufacturing, the IMF believes the real cause of job losses is automation, not trade. It warns that tariffs will hurt innovation and competitiveness in the long term.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.41%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.56% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.72%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.64% higher yesterday. On Tuesday, European stocks reversed early losses. They closed higher, benefiting from a rebound in US stocks as markets continued to assess how the risks of reduced trade relations with the US could affect European corporate giants. Automakers were among the session’s top gainers, with Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Volkswagen adding more than 2%. Banks, meanwhile, rose steadily, with BNP Paribas, Intesa Sanpaolo, and ING adding around 1.5%. However, UniCredit fell nearly -3% after the Italian government placed restrictions on the lender’s bid to acquire Banco BPM. On the earnings side, L’Oreal shares rose more than 6% after posting strong results.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) are down nearly 1% to $32.30 an ounce on Tuesday as investors lock in profits after the precious metal’s strong rally. The pullback came after recent gains driven by safe-haven demand amid growing concerns about the impact of escalating trade tensions on the global economy. Market sentiment worsened due to stalled trade talks between the US and China, with Beijing accusing Washington of abusing tariffs and warning other countries against unilateral deals.

WTI crude prices rose above $64 a barrel on Wednesday, extending gains of more than 2% from the previous session, helped by new US sanctions and a sharp decline in crude inventories. The US has imposed new restrictions on a key Iranian figure supplying liquefied natural gas and crude oil. Meanwhile, industry data showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels last week, which could be the largest decline since November.

Asian markets traded flat. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.17% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.33%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.78%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed 0.03%.

Malaysia’s annual inflation rate eased to 1.4% in March 2025 from 1.5% in the previous month, the lowest since February 2021 and below market forecasts of 1.6%. Core consumer prices, excluding volatile fresh food and administrative expenses, rose to 1.9% y/y, holding steady for the second month and remaining at the lowest level in six months.

Singapore’s annual inflation rate for March 2025 was 0.9%, unchanged from the previous month but slightly below market expectations of 1%. The rate remained at its lowest level since February 2021.

  • S&P 500 (US500) 5,287.76 +129.56 (+2.51%)
  • Dow Jones (US30) 39,186.98 +1,016.57 (+2.66%)
  • DAX (DE40) 21,293.53 +87.67 (+0.41%)
  • FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,328.60 +52.94 (+0.64%)
  • USD index 98.99 +0.71 (+0.72%)
     

News feed for: 2025.04.23

  • Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
  • German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 19:30 (GMT+3).

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Disclosure: This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, ...

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