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Refining was rocking as refiners booked profits running at historically high rates. If demand is so bad, then why are refining margins so good? Bloomberg News reports Exxon Mobil’s refining margins rose in Q3, boosting earnings by around $500 million over the previous quarter. The fuel division will add $300–$700 million to profits, while higher chemical margins are expected to contribute $200 million. They say thatchanges in oil and gas prices are forecasted to have minimal impact on earnings. The crack spreads, that sweet difference between crude oil and the gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel it churns out—waspopping off the charts producing margins that’d make even the most grizzled oil executive at Exxon crack a smile. To learn more about cracks, call Phil Flynn 888-264-5665.

OPEC, on the other hand, has not been happy with the fake news and leaks that have been surrounding their intentions. Not only did they deny stories that were leaked by the press, they’re also showing growing frustration with the media in general. It seems that somehow on the Newswires there are inaccurate at best and perhaps nefarious at worst stories. Even Russia backed OPEC as Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Novak said overnight that OPEC did not discuss after November and they never discussed, any quotas higher than 137,000 barrels per day in November.

OPEC’s actions speak louder than words, as they raised the official oil selling price rather than lowering it. This undermines the idea that OPEC is trying to regain market share, although current prices do favor them since shale producers are struggling while OPEC continues to profit. On top of that, it seems that some OPEC producers are producing at capacity and can’t raise production that much to begin with.

Verified estimates indicate that the majority of Ukrainian attacks have targeted oil refineries, although strikes on other energy assets—such as gas facilities and pipelines—have contributed significantly to the overall impact. Between January 2024 and October 2025, there were 61 drone attacks reported across 24 Russian oil refineries, with about 40 of these incidents resulting in fires or long-term damage. These assaults have pushed Russian refining output to its lowest point in 12 years and have led to an approximate 10% decline in exports.

In the same period, 21 unique refineries were hit, representing 48% more than the total number of incidents recorded throughout 2024. Specifically, August saw 14 refinery strikes, and September had 8, affecting 21 out of Russia’s 38 major refineries and causing a loss of roughly 25% of refining capacity by September. From August to October 2025, attacks expanded to include more than 10 refineries and several key export terminals, such as Ust-Luga, with 16 refineries—amounting to 38% of Russia’s refining capacity—hit in August and September alone. When broader energy infrastructure is considered, including refineries, fuel depots, and gas facilities in Russia and occupied Ukraine, 81 separate assaults were recorded throughout 2024, with southern Russia being the most affected area.

By October 2025, the cumulative estimate of major strikes on refineries and other energy assets had exceeded 100, as 2025 alone saw an additional 40–50 major incidents. Notably, by February 2025, about 10% of Russian energy capacity was offline, with significant sites like the Astrakhan gas plant included in the tally. These continued attacks on Russian oil infrastructure still has considerable upside risk to the marketplace.

Now if you also consider the fact that it seems that OPECproduction capabilities might not be as large as the market had anticipated, it could also add to some significant risk. We also have to keep in mind that oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has given the market a false sense of security yet in the mean time we continue to stay at a very tight trading range for oil. Though there is a possibility of a significant upside breakout getting into winter. Probably a good time to start putting down your hedges as we get into winter. Hedges? What are hedges? Call Phil Flynn 888-264-5665!

Yet natural gas has been getting a boost from an endless summer, as temperatures in the Midwest have felt more like July than October. Now, a significant shift in weather patterns could get the market excited about the possibility of an early start to winter.Last week’s natural gas inventory reflected a lower-than-expected injection, and this week Natural Gas Intelligence anticipates that the Lower 48 U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the week ending October 3 will record an injection of 77 Bcf. This figure represents a 24 Bcf increase from last week’s reported injection. A build of 77 Bcf aligns closely with the 78 Bcf injection observed during the same period last year, but it falls 16 Bcf short of the five-year average injection of 94 Bcf.

Of course natural gas is headed towards a record demand winter potentially not only with record exports but with more power needs for data center and artificial intelligence. That is giving the market a counter seasonal up move. 

Plus, we have a storm to watch in the Gulf of America. Fox Weather isreporting that there is a new area of possible tropical development flagged. The National Hurricane Center says the disturbance could slowly develop as it moves across Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. “Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Yucatán Peninsula, Belize and southern Mexico during the next few days,” NHC forecasters wrote in their outlook. Forecasters are also monitoring Invest 95L in the central Atlantic, which has a high chance of development. The disturbance has spun off what forecasters call the Central American Gyre, or CAG. The broad area of low pressure typically develops once or twice during the early and late months of hurricane season.A CAG can trigger a range of hazardous weather besides tropical cyclones, including torrential rain, flooding and mudslides.

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