Current geo-politics make Natural Gas an interesting opportunity. Russia is saying that European and all Western nations need to pay for Russian goods in Rubles and the G7 is saying, “Well, we won’t do that. You have to honor your current contracts.” 

The Europeans get a substantial portion of their natural gas from Russia. So, if the Europeans refuse to pay in Rubles and Russia won’t sell Natural Gas to them, the obvious place for Europe to obtain Natural Gas will be the United States. The United States produces all of its own domestic natural gas, and therefore could, or at least should be able to export some to Europe.  

Using Ichimoku Cloud analysis let’s look at the United States Natural Gas Futures market, from the Nymex exchange, to see what the market thinks. Does the market think there is going to be additional demand for US natural gas? 

Natural Gas Weekly Ichimoku Cloud Chart

The weekly chart has been going up for a long period of time. There’s been quite a move in this market which started in March of 2021. Crude oil started moving up in April of 2021. 

The weekly chart shows prices trending above the Ichimoku Cloud. Additionally, you’ll note the Ichimoku Cloud wave count and targets. The Ichimoku Cloud system has all of these elements built into its analysis.

The Ichimoku Cloud Lagging Line is also above the Cloud, confirming the uptrend. Price is above both Ichimoku Cloud moving averages. The longer-term and stronger moving average called the Base Line is in red. The Conversion Line is blue and it’s a faster moving average.  

The Ichimoku Cloud system is indicating a bullish opportunity with this week’s close, as noted with the green up arrow. The market pulled back in December forming a nice retracement, but it has been heading up steadily since. If the price breaks above the wave 5 high, it should continue up to the target resistance zone. The black line at 7.58 indicates the most likely place to which the price will rise.  

Natural Gas Daily Ichimoku Cloud Chart

The daily chart is in a strong uptrend above the Ichimoku Cloud. Price has headed to the target zone but not yet reached the old high, as noted with the black target line.  The Ichimoku Cloud Lagging line is above price and clear to head higher. The moving averages are rising, indicating the momentum is up, and more upside potential is likely.  

With an up-trending daily chart and bullish weekly chart, the Ichimoku Cloud expects prices to go higher. 

Natural Gas 60-Minute Ichimoku Cloud Chart

Natural Gas has been moving up steadily, since the end of March. Price and the Lagging Line are above the Ichimoku Cloud showing the uptrend. The 60-minute wave count is expecting a 5 wave to break up above the wave 3 high.  The shorter-term moving average, the Conversion Line, has crossed above the longer-term moving average, the Base Line, making the momentum up.  The Lagging Line has cleared through price opening up a path for the market to head higher.  A break of the 60-minute wave 3 highs, could be an early opportunity to consider a bullish position in Natural Gas. 

Overall, the Natural Gas Futures market is looking extremely bullish. It’s in an uptrend in all three timeframes. The Ichimoku Cloud analysis suggests the G7 may hold to its word and start buying some natural gas from the United States and less if not none, from Russia.