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We kicked off the day with Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Fed Harker Speech, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index, and Richmond Fed Services Index at 9:00 A.M., 42-Day Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Money Supply at 12:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economics Index in September declined by 0.5% from August and was 4.8% less than a year ago. This marked the 31^st consecutive month that the index was unchanged or lower and the 27^th consecutive month of year-over-year declines. The Conference Board noted that weakness in factory orders continues to be a major drag on the index. Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined, and consumer sentiment remained unenthusiastic. The Leading Credit Index reflected a slight improvement in credit conditions in September, which along with the S&P 500, were positive contributors to the Leading Economics Index.

CBOT Corn Holds $4.00 Support on Robust US Export Demand:

World corn markets ended firm as Chinese government makes further attempts to boost economic performance and as a competitive US food prices find a sizable importer demand. US exporters sold another 20 Mil Bu to Mexico/unknown destinations yesterday. On a known basis since Oct 4^th exporters have sold 178 Mil/Bu, vs. 88 Mil in the same period a year ago. South American weather is favorable. But supplies won’t be replenished until summer 2025. The fundamental battle between record US yields and sizable November-March disappearance continues. The US harvest on Sunday was 65% complete. Harvesting will reach 77-89% complete Oct 27. Supply pressure will be in retreat,  which allows basis to stabilize. However, Ag Resources (ARC) and the Corn & Ethanol report agree that March ’25 over $4.40 and Dex ’25 over $4.50is overvalued until the next major global supply dislocation occurs. Additional old crop and new crop hedges will be recommended prior to mid-January amid waning Chinese import demand and as La Nina is unlikely to materially offset production in Argentina between November & February. Spot CBOT con futures will struggle on rallies above $.4.15.

Mondays CBOT preliminary open interest data showed a gain of 20,596 contracts in corn and 460 contracts in Chicago wheat, and a decline of 10,220 contracts in soybeans. Yesterday soybean rally appears to be related to short covering, while corn/wheat witnessed a new influx of buying!

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