Photo by Waldemar on Unsplash

We kickoff the day with Personal Income MoM, Personal Spending MoM, Core PCE Price Index MoM & YoY, PCE Price Index MoM & YoY, Goods Trade Balance Adv, Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv, and Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv at 7:30 A.m., Chicago PMI at 8:45 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, 5-Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Consumer Expectations Final, Michigan Current Conditions Final, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Final at 9;00 A.M., Quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary at 11:00 A.M., Fed Williams Speech at 11:45 A.M., and Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M.

On the Corn Front recent rains have lifted the Mississippi River depths from the late summer lows. But the increase was minimal, and many locations remain at historically low levels. The measurement on Wednesday was -1.033’, up from the mid-September low of -3.5’ but still the lowest measurement for the date since the 2012 drought year. Barge freight rates have trending higher since late July, and St. Louis freight has jumped sharply this week. Export demand and CIF bids for corn and soybeans are down from a year ago, but seasonal demand and low water levels have kept barge freight quotes on pace with last year’s rally. Rain is needed for barge rates to relax. We will have dry weather in Illinois and Indiana the next 9 to 10 days which will excellerate harvest. Traders seem to be keeping their powder dry in the early going as we wait for the Quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary. The outside markets have crude oil rallying 2% this week and is now flirting with $93 a barrel on tightening supplies of deliverable crude oil in Cushing, Ok and strong demand from the US, China, and India at a time when OPEC+ is restricting supply and Russia fights its own distillates shortages. These facts have provided sizable margins for ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable diesel producers and commenced the selling of RINs, a growing natural profit margins and reduced their valuations. In the overnight electronic session the December corn is currently trading at 487 ¾ which is ¾ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 489 ¾ to 486 ½.

On the Ethanol Front Saul Wordsworth with International Industrial Vehicle Technology reports, Agritechnica: John Deere to present concept ethanol engine. John Deere is leveraging its engineering expertise to vet and test new technologies that simplify the integration of renewable fuels  with combustion engine technology as it strives to deliver more value and productivity to customers. It will have a concept 9.0L engine that is compatible with ethanol on display at this year’s Agritechnica Show. This concept engine illustrates the company’s ongoing commitment to developing a diversified portfolio of solutions that can meet power needs across equipment sizes and applications. Within the variety of available renewable fuels, the company considers biodiesel, renewable diesel (or HVO) and ethanol to be the most promising options for near-term integration into heavy duty applications. Ethanol an alcohol-based renewable fuel that is widely available in many parts of the world since it can be made from feedstocks such as corn, wheat, and sugar cane. As a high-octane fuel, ethanol is attractive for high performance spark ignited engines. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.

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