Harvest & Risk - The Corn & Ethanol Report
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Market Refinance Index, MBA Purchase Index, and MBA Mortgage Applications at 6:00 A.M., Durable Goods Orders MoM, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM, Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air, Durable Goods ex Defense MoM at 7:30 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 2-Year FRN Auction and 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 5-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., and Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.
On the Corn Front abnormal Central US warmth lingers into October 6th. Lite to moderate showers will move across the eastern Midwest into Thursday but otherwise a pattern of warmth & dryness will allow harvest to move along smoothly. Beyond Thursday, little or no rain is projected across the Central US into the first week of October. Expansive high pressure Ridging temperatures aloft will sustain abnormally high temperatures through the period, with summer-like readings due across the South and Central Plains and the Western Midwest. Yesterday’s corn open interest grew another 1,478 contracts while the soybean complex with oil and meal dropping dramatically. These numbers are painting a picture of doubt, and that’s when the market rides, fear and greed. This morning the corn and soybeans are starting in the green with December corn currently trading at 481 ½ which is 1 ¾ of a cent higher. The trading range has been 485 ½ to 479.
On the Ethanol Front industry groups continue to slam the EPA advisors report on fuel’s minimal climate benefit. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has a working group the EPA’s Science Advisory Board (SAB) concluded in an August draft report that there are no minimal or climate benefits from substituting corn ethanol for gasoline or diesel. “We adamantly disagree,” said Geoff Cooper, CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association, (RFA), citing findings by the Department of Energy’s Argonne National Laboratory that ethanol is 44% lower in emissions than gasoline. Let’s save time, if it is going to work move forward, don’t regulate it, if not, lets still move forward.
There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.
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