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At the close of the stock market on Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.01%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.36%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) gained 0.76% yesterday.

Weekly jobless claims in the US are falling. Initial jobless claims fell by 18,000 in the last week from 246,000, exceeding economists' forecast of 200,000 applications and reinforcing expectations of a cooling labor market. An important monthly labor market report will be released today, namely the change in nonfarm payrolls. Analysts forecast that the US economy will add 238,000 jobs in March after an increase of 311,000 in February. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at a low of 3.6%. With low liquidity due to the closure of other financial exchanges in Asia and Europe (Good Friday holiday), this report could cause a significant spike in volatility.

The Federal Reserve should stick to raising interest rates to reduce inflation while the labor market remains strong, given the high probability that recent financial stresses will continue to ease and in the absence of a marked tightening of credit conditions, St Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday. Bullard previously said he had raised his estimate of how high the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate should rise by the end of 2023 to a range of 5.50%-5.75%.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.50%, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.12%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.67%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed with a 1.03% gain.

ECB spokesman Philip Lane said yesterday that if the ECB's economic outlook remains unchanged by the May meeting (4 May), a rate hike would be appropriate. His comments followed a stronger-than-expected rise in industrial production in Germany in February, which, combined with strong business activity data on Wednesday, made the eurozone economy avoid recession in the first quarter. Analysts are now forecasting a 0.25% interest rate hike at each of the next 2 ECB meetings.

Natural gas futures resumed their downtrend, closing the current week down almost 10%. Natural gas is down for the 4th week in 5. The monthly contract has once again fallen below the key support level of $2, with new lows likely in the coming days. Natural gas storage in the US fell only slightly last week as cooler-than-normal weather led to sustained demand for heating. According to the EIA, the storage volume is now 32% higher than a year ago and nearly 20% higher than the five-year average.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan's Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 1.10%, China's FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.58%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.01%, India's NIFTY 50 (IND50) increased by 0.24%, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day down by 0.31%.

Haruhiko Kuroda will hold his last press conference as head of Japan's central bank today, ending a decade of soft monetary policy. Shock therapy was one of the key features of Kuroda's monetary experiment, under which the Bank of Japan rolled out a massive asset purchase program in 2013.

Today is a Good Friday holiday. Most financial exchanges will be closed. Only the US futures and forex exchanges will be open part-time.

• S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,105.00 +14.62 (+0.36%)
• Dow Jones (US30)33,485.29 +2.57 (+0.0077%)
• DAX (DE40) 15,597.89 +77.72 (+0.50%)
• FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,741.56 +78.62 (+1.03%)
• USD Index 101.90 +0.05 (+0.04%)
   

Important events for today:

• US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

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