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Gold opened the week lower, slipping below 3,380 USD per troy ounce on Monday, as easing geopolitical tensions reduced demand for the metal as a safe-haven asset.

On Friday, US President Donald Trump announced plans to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on 15 August to negotiate a ceasefire. A successful outcome could diminish the likelihood of further US sanctions against Moscow.

Despite the decline, prices found some support from lingering trade risks and growing expectations of a Fed rate cut by year-end. Last Thursday, higher US tariffs on imports from several countries came into effect, prompting the affected trade partners to seek urgent concessions.

This week, investors will focus on key US economic data, including CPI and PPI inflation figures and retail sales, to gauge the Fed’s next policy moves.

Adding to market uncertainty, the White House’s stance on gold bullion tariffs remains unclear. Last week, the US government confirmed that gold imports are subject to duties, while upcoming inflation data could influence the Fed’s rate decision.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

The XAU/USD pair is consolidating broadly around 3,383 USD, with recent swings extending between 3,408 USD (upper bound) and 3,367 USD (lower bound). Today, we anticipate a rise towards 3,420 USD, potentially stretching to 3,425 USD, followed by a fresh downward wave targeting 3,345 USD. A break below this level could extend losses to 3,255 USD. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero and points firmly upward.

H1 Chart:

(Click on image to enlarge)

The pair has completed an upward structure to 3,408 USD, with a subsequent correction to 3,368 USD. Today, we expect a rebound towards 3,393 USD, effectively marking the consolidation range. An upside breakout could propel prices towards 3,420 USD, while a downside breakout may trigger a decline to 3,313 USD. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this view, with its signal line below 50 and trending downward towards 20.
 

Conclusion

Gold remains under pressure amid reduced safe-haven demand, although trade tensions and Fed rate cut expectations provide some support. Technically, the metal faces key resistance near 3,420 USD, with a bearish reversal likely upon failure to sustain momentum.

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