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Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower after hitting yet another all-time high near $4,380 on Friday as investors seek a reliable store of value amid geopolitical, economic and fiscal uncertainty. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,230, easing from record highs as the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields rebound while traders lock in partial profits. Despite the sharp pullback, the metal remains on track for its ninth consecutive weekly gain.

Lingering concerns over the prolonged US-China trade standoff remain a key driver behind Gold’s recent surge as trade tensions continue to cast a shadow over global growth prospects. The rally drew additional fuel after United States (US) regional banking stress headlines grabbed investors’ attention and stoked risk aversion, with the ongoing US government shutdown further dampening market sentiment.

Furthermore, traders are now fully pricing in back-to-back 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its October and December monetary policy meetings, adding another layer of support to Bullion’s record-breaking rally as lower interest rates enhance its appeal as a non-yielding asset.

Market movers: Gold hits $30T cap as Fed cuts and trade frictions drive flows

• Gold’s total market capitalization has climbed above $30 trillion for the first time, reflecting the metal’s record-breaking rally and sustained safe-haven demand. The surge in value underscores the scale of global inflows into Bullion, which now far outpaces major assets such as Bitcoin and leading US tech giants.
• Fresh turbulence in US regional banks added to market anxiety late Thursday. Zions Bancorp reported about $50 million in loan losses tied to two borrowers accused of providing false information, while Western Alliance Bancorp filed a fraud lawsuit against one of its clients over disputed collateral.
• White House Senior Adviser Kevin Hassett told Fox Business Network that US banks hold ample reserves and the administration remains optimistic about credit conditions. He added that if the government shutdown extends beyond the weekend, President Trump may ramp up actions, while calling the three expected Fed rate cuts “a good start.”
• According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders assign a 96.8% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the October 29-30 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, while the December 10-12 meeting shows an 81.3% chance of another 25 bps cut and 18.1% odds of a larger 50 bps move.
• US President Donald Trump said on Friday that his planned 100% tariffs on Chinese imports are “not sustainable,” while reiterating that the measures were a response to Beijing’s tightening of rare-earth export controls. He added that he expects to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping within the next two weeks.
• China accused the US of violating WTO rules and engaging in discriminatory trade practices, while also criticizing Washington for stoking panic over its rare earth controls. Despite the sharp rhetoric, Beijing signaled a willingness to resume trade talks, offering a faint glimmer of hope for de-escalation.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD eases from record peak as traders book profits

(Click on image to enlarge)

XAU/USD is pulling back from fresh record highs reached earlier on Friday as traders book profits following an overextended rally. Despite the intraday correction, the broader bullish structure remains intact, suggesting that any dips are likely to attract fresh buying interest.

On the 4-hour chart, immediate support lies at the 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,230, followed by the 50-SMA around $4,115. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased to around 64, retreating from overbought territory, which could allow prices to consolidate before the next leg higher.

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