Gold prices soared about 0.6% higher and traded around $2011 in the New York trading session as the US dollar weakened ahead of economic data such as the PCE index and GDP Q1 numbers.

• The Fed is still expected to raise interest rates by another 25 bps in May’s meeting, next week.
• There is a 60% probability that the Fed will pause its tightening cycle after this hike which might be supportive.
• Current calculations pointing to a potential rate cut around September or November.
• Dallas Fed’s Factory Activity fell further in April as the elevated rates seem to take effect on the economy.
• Recession fears and higher inflation leading investors to buy Gold reserves as demand for the precious metal seems to rise globally.
• Concerns about the US debt limit in the coming months leading market participants to avoid Treasury bills, leading the way into the gold market.
• Zimbabwe needs about $100 million worth of gold reserves to back its digital currency plan and to stabilize its currency, which adds to the demand side to favor the gold price.
• Gold prices in India have soared to highest as the demand rose, especially during the weekend of the Akshaya Tritiya.

Looking at the daily interval, we can observe supportive core buying around the Year’s upper value extreme which led the market back into the Quarter’s developing value area, targeting the upper value extreme as a rotational scenario and the swing highs for absorption purposes. Now the market is hitting the developing VWAP for possible long liquidations and shorting.

The hourly interval rose above the swing highs which might initiate absorption for a pullback to find additional buying around the lower extreme of the balanced price range. The short-term to median-term participant might target the $2050 as rotational scenario which is confluent with the Quarter’s upper value extreme of the developing VWAP value area.

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