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Gold (XAU/USD) recovers slightly from a three-day low touched this Thursday, though sticks to its negative bias for the second straight day through the early European session. The growing acceptance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates two more times this year fails to assist the US Dollar (USD) in capitalizing on its weekly gains registered over the past two days. Furthermore, a slight deterioration in the resilient global risk sentiment and rising geopolitical tensions act as a tailwind for the safe-haven precious metal.

Despite the supportive fundamental backdrop, the XAU/USD bulls remain on the sidelines and opt to wait for more cues about the Fed's future policy path. Hence, the focus remains glued to the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding Gold. In the meantime, US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims might provide some impetus later during the early North American session.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold bulls remain on the sidelines despite supportive fundamental backdrop
 

• The initial market reaction to the shocking US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend seems to have faded, prompting some follow-through profit-taking in Gold for the second straight day on Thursday. However, a combination of factors might hold back the XAU/USD bears from placing aggressive bets and help limit losses.
• US President Donald Trump threatened that Colombia and Mexico could face US military action as part of a widening campaign against criminal networks and regional instability. Adding to this, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled no retreat from the President's aim to take over Greenland, and Trump retained the option to address the objective by military means.
• Moreover, the lack of progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace deal, unrest in Iran, and issues surrounding Gaza keep geopolitical risks in play, which could support the safe-haven precious metal. This, along with bets that the US Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs in March and deliver another rate cut later this year, might help limit losses for the commodity.
• On the economic data front, the Institute for Supply Management reported an unexpected pickup in the US services sector activity in December, with its Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rising to 54.4 from 52.6 in November. The upbeat reading, however, was largely offset by a duo of rather unimpressive US labor market reports.
• According to the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute, private-sector employment in the US rose by 41,000 in December against the 29,000 fall (revised from -32,000) in November and the 47,000 expected. Separately, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that the number of job openings fell to 7.146 million in November.
• Traders, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets as the focus remains glued to the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. The crucial employment details would influence market expectations about the Fed's policy path, which will drive the USD demand and provide a fresh impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.
• In the meantime, Thursday's release of the usual Weekly US Initial Jobless Claims data could produce short-term trading opportunities around the XAU/USD later during the North American session. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for any further losses.

Gold could extend the slide further towards testing the $4,400 mark
 

From a technical perspective, the $4,425 confluence – comprising the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent move up – could offer some support to the Gold price. A convincing break below might prompt some technical selling and drag the XAU/USD pair to the $4,400 mark. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line sits below the Signal line and below zero as the histogram expands negatively, pointing to strengthening bearish momentum.

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40 is neutral-to-bearish and slipping, underscoring constrained upside. Immediate recovery attempts would face the 23.6% Fibo. retracement level, around the $4,450 region. Failure to reclaim that barrier would keep rebounds capped, while a sustained hold above the 38.2% level could stabilize the tone; a break beneath it would extend the correction despite the rising SMA.

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