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Gold (XAU/USD) builds on its steady intraday bounce from the $4,773-4,772 region and climbs to a fresh daily peak during the early European session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's positive move amid bets for two more interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump pulled back from his threat to slap additional tariffs on eight European nations and ruled out seizing Greenland by force. This, in turn, triggers a fresh wave of the global risk-on trade and acts as a headwind for the safe-haven Gold. Traders might also refrain from positioning for any further gains ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold upside seems capped amid fading safe-haven demand
 

• The global risk sentiment gets a strong boost in reaction to US President Donald Trump's U-turn on Greenland and drags the traditional safe-haven Gold away from the record high, touched on Wednesday.
• Trump said at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he had reached an agreement on a framework for a future deal on Greenland with NATO, ending the need to impose new tariffs on European nations.
• The development removes the tail risk of a US confrontation with NATO allies, triggering the reversal of the “Sell America” trade, which acts as a tailwind for the US Dollar and further undermines the bullion.
• US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff announced a new meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin that’s set to take place on Thursday amid progress with discussions over a US-led 20-point Ukraine peace plan.
• Meanwhile, Trump said on Wednesday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin were now at a point where they could reach a deal to end the war, further undermining the precious metal.
• According to a Reuters poll, a majority of economists expect that the US Federal Reserve will hold its key interest rate through the end of this quarter and possibly until Chair Jerome Powell's tenure ends in May.
• Traders, however, are still pricing in the possibility of two more rate reductions in 2026. Moreover, concerns about political interference in the Fed's independent setting of rates cap the USD upside.
• Hence, the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, along with the final US Q3 GDP report, due later today, will influence the USD price action and drive the XAU/USD pair.

Gold might struggle to capitalize on intraday move up amid mixed setup
 

The 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) continues to rise and lies beneath the price, supporting the near-term uptrend. The XAU/USD pair holds above this gauge, keeping the bias tilted higher, with the SMA at $4,707.80 acting as dynamic support. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains below the Signal line and below zero, while the negative histogram contracts, suggesting fading bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 46 (neutral) after cooling from prior extremes.

Measured from the $4,535.22 low to the $4,889.37 high, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,754.08 offers initial support, while the 23.6% Fibo. level at $4,805.79 cushions dips; holding above these supports would keep the recovery path intact. Near-term, continued price acceptance above the rising 100-hour SMA keeps the path of least resistance to the upside. Momentum would firm if the MACD turns up through its Signal line and the RSI reclaims 50, while failure to hold above the average would leave the market vulnerable to a deeper pullback and extend consolidation.

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