Gold Price To Recover If Fed Rate Hike Risk & USD Strength Ebb

Gold and silver prices extended their post-FOMC nosedives during Thursday’s trading session. The precious metals are now down -5.5% and -7.2% on the week respectively. Selling pressure across XAU/USD and XAG/USD largely follows the huge influx of US Dollar strength in response to the Federal Reserve bringing forward its taper timeline.

Specifically, the latest Fed dot plot revealed that central bank officials see two interest rate hikes by the end of 2023. This compares to market expectations only looking for one rate hike in 2023 and the prior dot plot that showed less than half of FOMC officials penciling in rate increases by year-end 2023. In light of Fed Chair Powell downplaying the significance of the dot plot, however, there seems to be potential for gold price action to claw back recent downside.

XAU/USD – GOLD PRICE CHART: WEEKLY TIME FRAME (NOVEMBER 2019 TO JUNE 2021)

Gold Price Chart XAUUSD Forecast

Chart by @RichDvorakFX created using TradingView

Not to mention, nearby support at the $1,765-price level stands out as a noteworthy technical barrier that gold bulls might look to defend. Below this technical support zone resides a long-term ascending trendline in addition to the $1,675-price level, which is underpinned by the bottom Bollinger Band and year-to-date lows. Rebound efforts could see gold price action ricochet back toward the $1,900-handle. Nevertheless, XAU/USD is likely to continue facing headwinds until the rally in real yields stabilizes and the US Dollar squeeze finishes running its course.

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William K. 1 month ago Member's comment

Could it also be that the sudden drop is caused by profit taking? Holding shares is not the way to turn a quick profit, at least as I see it. And wise investors understand that in order to sell, buyers are required. So it could also be that profit taking is the driver.