Gold Price Remains Confined In A Range Near Multi-Week Low Amid Cautious Mood Ahead Of FOMC Meeting
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- Gold price consolidates its recent sharp decline to a multi-week low touched on Monday.
- The USD preserves its recent strong gains and acts as a headwind for the precious metal.
- Traders now seem reluctant and opt to wait for the crucial FOMC decision on Wednesday.
Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its sideways consolidative price move through the Asian session on Tuesday and remains close to a nearly three-week low touched the previous day. The US Dollar (USD) bulls pause for a breather following the overnight blowout rally and ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC policy meeting starting later today. This is seen as a key factor that assists the precious metal to hold steady above the $3,300 round figure.
However, the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates elevated for longer helps limit the USD downside and acts as a headwind for the non-yielding Gold price. Furthermore, the latest trade optimism contributes to capping the safe-haven precious metal. However, the market anxiety ahead of this week's key central bank events and important US macro releases warrants some caution for the XAU/USD bears.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price traders seem reluctant amid mixed cues, ahead of FOMC meeting
- A trade agreement between the US and European Union over the weekend added to the optimism led by the US-Japan deal and eased fears about a global trade war. Adding to this, top US and Chinese officials – including US Treasury Chief Scott Bessent and China's Vice Premier He Lifeng – will resume talks on Tuesday to resolve longstanding economic disputes and extend a truce for three months.
- The US Dollar jumped the most since early May on Monday, putting it on track for a nearly 1.5% rise in July and the first monthly gains this year. This, in turn, dragged the Gold price lower for the fourth consecutive day to its lowest level in three weeks. The USD bulls, however, take a brief pause and opt to wait for more cues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cut path before placing fresh bets.
- Hence, the focus will remain glued to the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting, starting this Tuesday. The US central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Hence, the accompanying statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at the post-meeting press conference will be scrutinized closely for fresh insight about the central bank's policy outlook.
- Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump set a new deadline of 10 or 12 days for Russia to make progress towards ending the war in Ukraine. Trump warned of severe sanctions if Russia failed to act and said that his administration would impose 100% secondary tariffs on countries continuing to buy Russian exports. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and supports the safe-haven XAU/USD pair.
- Traders now look forward to Tuesday's US economic docket – featuring the release of JOLTS Job Openings and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index later during the North American session. The data might influence the USD, which, along with trade-related developments and the broader risk sentiment, should provide some impetus to the commodity and produce short-term opportunities.
Gold price could accelerate the fall once the $3,300 mark is broken decisively
From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures near the $3,434-3,435 region constituted the formation of a multiple tops on the daily chart. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction and back the case for a further depreciating move for the Gold price. Some follow-through selling below the $3,300 round figure will reaffirm the negative bias and make the XAU/USD pair vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the $3,260-3,255 horizontal support. The said area coincides with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and should act as a key pivotal point, which, if broken decisively, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders.
On the flip side, any meaningful recovery attempt might now confront an immediate hurdle near the $3,340 area, above which the Gold price could climb to the $3,367-3,368 region. A sustained strength beyond the latter might trigger a short-covering rally and allow the XAU/USD pair to reclaim the $3,400 round figure. The positive momentum could extend further, though it is more likely to remain capped near the $3,434-3,435 strong barrier. A sustained strength above, however, would negate any near-term negative bias and pave the way for a move towards challenging the all-time peak, around the $3,500 psychological mark touched in April.
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