The gold price retreated slightly in the short term, now at $1,924. A retracement was expected after an impulsive move to $1,947 last week.

Also, the dollar’s rally forced the yellow metal to turn to the downside. As you already know from my analyses, gold edged higher after the SNB and BOE decision to keep the monetary policy unchanged.

On Friday, the manufacturing and services data impacted all markets. The US Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.9 points, above the 48.2 points expected and compared to 47.9 points in the previous reporting period. In comparison, Flash Services PMI dropped from 50.5 points to 50.2, signaling a slowdown in expansion.

Today, the German Ifo Business Climate came in at 85.7 points, above the 85.1 points expected. Later, the ECB President Lagarde Speaks could bring high action on XAU/USD.

Tomorrow, the CB Consumer Confidence is seen as a high-impact event, and it could drop from 106.1 to 105.5 points, while New Home Sales may drop to 699K from 714K. Poor US economic figures could lift the price of gold.

As the “markets guy”, my job is to ask: “So what’s the trade?” Consider banks.  Given how shaky the banks are right now given the 500 bp move in yields that has caused all those “unrealized losses,” then add to that these banks most likely force-vaxxed their employees.  How do we think that might play out? But this won’t just hit the banks.   It will hit a wide range of corporates and ultimately confidence in government.

Gold Price Technical Analysis: Bullish Momentum Stalls

Gold hourly price chart

XAU/USD came back to retest the lower median line (LML), which stands as a dynamic support. It has registered only false breakdowns below it, signaling a potential bullish momentum. Still, staying near this downside obstacle may announce an imminent downside breakout.

A bearish close below today’s low of $1,920 may announce a sell-off, at least until the $1,913 former low. On the contrary, a new higher high, jumping and closing above Friday’s high of $1,929, could announce a more significant growth. The former high of $1,947 is a potential target if the rate jumps higher.

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