• Gold stays intact above $4,100 amid anticipated Fed easing and ongoing geopolitical risks. 
• US-China trade frictions enhance gold’s “buy-on-dips” appeal. 
• Traders look ahead to Fed Powell’s speech and the upcoming CPI and PPI figures for further policy cues. 

The gold outlook shows a retreat from the intraday peak around the $4,179-4,180 level, after investors booked profits. Despite this, the precious metal exhibits bullish bias amid expectations of Fed rate cuts and the ongoing geopolitical instability. 

On Tuesday, both spot and futures markets tested record high levels after traders priced in near-term Fed easing, maintaining gold’s uptrend despite the recent pullback. 

Monetary policy stays the key near-term catalyst. The markets are pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut, one this month and the other by year-end. While this instability limits the dollar’s uptrend, it continues to favor gold’s safe-haven demand. 

Additionally, trade frictions act as another key catalyst. Beijing’s move to restrict rare earth metal exports and similar other retaliatory actions, along with Washington’s threat of high tariffs, have aggravated tensions in the market, elevating gold’s safe-haven appeal.  The domestic US fiscal tensions, specifically the unresolved government shutdown, have further bolstered gold’s position.

Overall, the expectations of Fed easing, revived trade frictions, and the rising geopolitical uncertainty together offer a “buy-on-dips” stance for the pair. Gold’s bullish bias appears justified so long as it stays above the $4,100 level and expectations of Fed easing remain firm.
 

Gold Daily Key Events 

Major events in the day include:

• Fed’s Bowman speech
• Fed’s Chair Powell’s speech

Today, traders are anticipating Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for key guidance. Additionally, they are closely monitoring the upcoming key Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index for insights into expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. 

Gold Technical Outlook: Consolidates after Rally, Uptrend Holds Firm above $4,100
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

Gold 4-hour chart
 

The XAU/USD 4-hour chart indicates the metal holds steady below the record high around the $4,180 level after a sharp uptrend, signaling profit-taking while holding a bullish bias. The price holds above the key MAs, indicating an uptrend. The 20-MA is around $4,050, the 50-MA holds near $3,988, and the 100-MA is at $3,887, acting as strong support levels.

The RSI is at 69, which is slightly below the overbought territory. It suggests a possible near-term consolidation before another break above resistance. A sustained break above $4,180 is required to extend the gains towards $4,220-$4,250 region. 

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