Gold Traders Brace for Fireworks

Gold prices are trading just above key support as traders brace for major volatility ahead of today’s US CPI report and June FOMC. On the back of stronger-than-forecast US jobs data last week (both NFP and wages topped forecasts), we’ve seen a sharp downturn in pricing for a September rate cut. The result has been a stronger US Dollar which has weighed on gold prices.

Two-Way Risk

Looking ahead today, there is clear two-way risk for gold prices. If USD pops higher on the back of stronger inflation and a hawkish Fed message, gold futures look vulnerable to a fresh break lower. However, any unexpected downside in CPI today and a more dovish message from the Fed should send USD lower, allowing gold prices to recover.  

Expectations for Today

In terms of forecasts and expectations for today, the market is looking for annualised CPI to hold steady at 3.4%. A hotter reading will no doubt feed into a more hawkish message from the Fed, diluting September easing chances further and driving gold prices lower. However, if we see any unexpected downside in CPI today, this could see a more dovish message from the Fed, bolstering September easing chances and leading to a lower USD and higher gold prices.

Technical Views

Gold

The market is sitting just above the 2.275.43 level support ahead of today’s data and event. With momentum studies turned lower, risks of a break lower are seen with the bull channel lows and the 2,149.72 area the next key support zone to watch. To the topside, bulls need to get back above 2,364.93 to put focus back on 2,427.54 again. 

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