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Gold (XAUUSD) is holding firm near recent highs as geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and policy uncertainty continue to drive safe-haven demand. The failure of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine has deepened concerns about prolonged conflict, while fresh tariff threats from the U.S. have reignited fears of a renewed trade war. At the same time, markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s next move, with investors watching for signs of dovish guidance. These factors are keeping gold well-supported and sustaining its bullish momentum.
 

Gold Remains Firm on Global Conflict, Trade Risks, and Policy Caution

Gold is consolidating near recent highs as global risks keep the bullish bias intact. The metal remains well-supported by intensifying geopolitical tensions. The recent failure of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine has reignited concerns about prolonged conflict. Russia’s demand for the full Donbas region and Ukraine’s outright rejection have deepened geopolitical instability. These developments are fueling demand for safe-haven assets, keeping gold in focus.

In North America, fresh trade tensions are stirring volatility. U.S. President Trump threatened a 100% tariff on Canadian goods following reports that Canada may be pursuing a trade deal with China. The aggressive rhetoric has revived fears of a renewed trade war, even as Canada clarified it has no intention of pursuing a deal with China. At the same time, U.S. friction with NATO over Greenland has further fueled political uncertainty, strengthening gold’s appeal as a safe‑haven asset.

Meanwhile, focus remains on the Federal Reserve as markets await its next policy move. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but Chair Powell’s post-meeting comments will be closely watched for any dovish tilt. While the case for aggressive rate cuts has weakened, many still expect at least two reductions later in 2026. This broader outlook continues to weigh on the Dollar and supports gold’s bullish momentum.
 

Gold Breaks above Multi-Year Channel, Maintains Bullish Technical Structure

The gold chart below shows a well-defined ascending channel that has guided price action since early 2024. This pattern features steady higher highs and higher lows, with price respecting both boundaries of the channel for nearly two years. The structure has acted as a reliable framework for the ongoing bullish trend, offering clear signals for continuation and support during consolidation phases.
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

Recently, gold broke decisively above the upper boundary of its ascending channel. This breakout followed a brief consolidation near the midsection of the channel, highlighting strong underlying demand. The move through resistance was sharp and backed by rising volume and momentum, signaling continuation of the broader uptrend.

Additionally, gold’s breakout above the channel has turned former resistance into a potential support level. The breakout zone between $4,900 and $5,000 remains a key area to monitor for potential retests. Holding above this range would strengthen the bullish case and open the door to further upside. The overall setup still points to sustained upward momentum in the near term.
 

Gold Outlook: Bullish Momentum Intact as Risks Remain Elevated

Gold remains in a strong position as geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and policy uncertainty continue to support safe-haven demand. Ongoing conflict concerns and renewed tariff threats are keeping risk appetite in check. At the same time, expectations for future Fed easing are limiting upside in the Dollar. The recent technical breakout has strengthened the broader trend and shifted focus to holding key support zones. As long as these conditions persist, gold is likely to extend its upward move.

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