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Gold (XAUUSD) is gaining strength as weak U.S. economic data and rising rate-cut expectations drive safe-haven demand. A disappointing private jobs report and plunging consumer sentiment have raised concerns about the labor market and inflation outlook. Markets are now pricing in a higher chance of monetary easing, boosting gold’s appeal. While easing geopolitical tensions and shutdown progress may limit near-term gains, the broader environment continues to support a bullish trend.

Gold Gains Momentum on Weak Jobs Report and Fed Cut Bets 
 

Gold continues to gain traction on the growing prospects of monetary policy easing. A key catalyst was last week’s weaker-than-expected US private jobs report, which signaled cooling labour market momentum. That data came alongside a sharp drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which fell to 50.3, marking its lowest level since June 2022. This sharp decline in sentiment reflects ongoing worries about inflation, employment security, and income prospects. With consumers growing more cautious, markets are increasingly pricing in monetary easing.

Moreover, the probability of a December rate cut has jumped to nearly 66%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-yielding asset, making it more attractive. This shift in policy expectations continues to boost precious metals broadly. Additionally, markets are watching upcoming inflation and retail sales data to gauge how fast the Fed might move. If CPI and consumer spending come in soft, it could strengthen the case for preemptive easing.

However, not all developments favor gold. Hopes for a resolution to the US government shutdown may limit short-term demand for safe-haven assets. Senate Democrats are now backing a funding deal that may reopen the government and support critical departments through early 2026. At the same time, the US and China have taken steps to de-escalate trade tensions. China has temporarily lifted export bans on several strategic materials, reducing geopolitical friction. These changes might lower short-term demand for gold, even if broader risks remain in focus.

Gold Holds above Channel as Retest Confirms Uptrend Continuation
 

The gold chart below shows a breakout above a well-defined ascending channel that had guided price action since late 2023. This channel consistently supported the uptrend, with price respecting both the upper and lower boundaries over multiple months. The breakout occurred in late September 2025 and marked a major shift in momentum.
 

Following the breakout, gold held its position above $4,000 with strong momentum. The move was supported by high volume and a strong breakout candle, signaling firm conviction and likely institutional buying. This breakout established a new structure beyond the previous range, marking the start of a more aggressive bullish phase. A brief pullback followed, but price remained above the breakout zone, turning former resistance into firm support.

The successful retest confirms the breakout and strengthens the bullish outlook. The former channel now provides a strong base, with the structure favoring further gains as long as the price stays above its upper boundary. The short consolidation within the red circle reflects temporary profit-taking, while the broader uptrend remains intact. Fresh support is now developing near the $3,800–$3,900 area, further strengthening the bullish setup.

Final Outlook: Bullish Momentum Supported by Economic and Structural Drivers
 

Gold remains in a strong uptrend, supported by weak U.S. economic data and rising expectations of a Fed rate cut. The breakout above the ascending channel has shifted momentum higher, with the structure now offering a solid support base. Easing political and trade tensions may cap near-term upside. However, the broader outlook continues to favor gold as macro conditions align with technical strength.

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