• Gold forecast remains firm under the 2-week highs amid a weaker dollar.
• Fed rate cut odds continue to support the bullish bias for gold.
• Institutional demand keeps the gold aiming for $4,900 in 2026.

Gold forecast remains stable on Thursday after profit-taking hit near two-week highs in the previous session. The price is now hovering above the $4,150 area, at the time of writing. The bias remains bullish despite the pullback as the XAUUSD holds firm amid a dovish Fed, softer US data, and a shifting geopolitical landscape.

Thanksgiving-led thin liquidity and a modest rebound in the US dollar capped further upside. However, market participants remained reluctant to drive the intraday losses deeper. The underlying macro theme continues to favor the bullion as the markets are pricing in an 85% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, supported by an array of dovish remarks from Fed officials.

New York Fed President John Williams reiterated last week that rates could be reduced without jeopardizing the progress in inflation. Meanwhile, Governor Christopher Waller also argued in favor of a 25-bps rate cut to support the labor markets. On the other hand, Stephen Miran called for a larger cut, given the deterioration in economic conditions. The US dollar lost traction, lending room to the non-yielding gold.

US economic data remained mixed on Wednesday as the US durable goods orders rose 0.5% in September, beating estimates but remaining lower than the upward revision in August’s 3% gain. On the other hand, jobless claims fell to a 7-month low of around 216k. However, the Chicago PMI slumped to 36.3, indicating a deeper contraction. The conflicting signals kept Treasury yields pinned near one-month lows.

Geopolitical optimism regarding the US-brokered Russia-Ukraine peace talks has increased risk appetite, reducing safe-haven flows. However, Moscow still maintains that the deal is distant, limiting downside pressure on gold.

Looking ahead, the long-term bias remains bullish for gold, as Goldman Sachs forecasts that gold prices could reach the $4,900 level in 2026, nearly 20% above current levels, driven by ETF flows, central bank buying, and dollar diversification, which are expected to sustain demand.
 

Gold Technical Forecast: Consolidation Near Trendline
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

Gold 4-hour chart
 

The 4-hour gold chart shows consolidation near the falling trendline, awaiting a catalyst to trigger a breakout. In the event of no breakout, the price could reverse from its current levels to the $4,100 area. The MA cluster indicates that consolidation is likely to continue, but the RSI and 20-period MA maintain an upside bias.

A bullish trendline breakout could gain more buying traction, leading to $4,200 level ahead of $4,245, which is a swing high for November. However, the consolidation is expected to continue for an extended period as the markets remain subdued.

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