• The prolonged US government shutdown and US-China trade frictions boost gold’s safe-haven appeal. 
• The Russia-Ukraine war and potential ceasefire keep investors cautious.
• Traders look ahead to the IMF meetings and FOMC’s Kashkari, Miran, and Musalem’s speeches for further policy direction.  

The gold forecast shows an unabated uptrend, breaking record highs, amid the ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions and expectations of Fed easing. 

The metal continues its rally in the consecutive ninth week, backed by revived US-China trade frictions and rising bets on two more Fed cuts, one this month and another in December. Investors have priced in 25 basis point cuts in the remaining meetings of the Federal Reserve, weighing on the yields and lifting the gold. 

The persistent US government shutdown, now in its third week, remains a key risk sentiment driver. The deadlock in Congress continues to break investors’ confidence. Treasury officials hinted at a loss of up to $15 billion per week in output if the situation persists. The heightened US-China trade frictions point to a potential trade war. Fed’s Powell and Fed Governor Waller also emphasized two more cuts, considering the declining job growth and cooling inflation. 

On the geopolitical front, escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the prospect of peace talks between President Trump and President Putin add to further risk sentiments. Even though the prospects of a potential ceasefire have capped further uptrend, dip-buying interest reflects robust demand. 
 

Gold Key Events Today

The significant events in the day include

• IMF meetings
• FOMC member Miran speaks
• FOMC’s Kashkari speaks
• FOMC Musalem speaks

Traders look forward to the IMF meetings and FOMC’s Kashkari, Miran, and Musalem’s speeches to gain insight into the economic outlook and monetary expectations. 

Gold Technical Forecast: Potential Pullback Amid Overbought Conditions 
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

Gold 4-hour chart
 

Gold’s 4-hour chart shows a substantial upside, trading around $4,342, after reaching a short-term high above $4,380. The pair indicates a strong bullish bias, supported by key moving averages of 20, 50, and 100 periods ascending upwards. 

The RSI is at 75, signaling overbought conditions. This suggests a likely near-term consolidation before the next upside. Immediate support sits at $4,222, $4,102, and $3,970. A decisive breach below these could lead to a correction to the $3,800-$3,860 levels. A break above $4,380 could extend gains toward $4,450 and $4,500. 

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