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Gold Hovering Near Highs

Gold prices are hovering just below the 2069.41 level today as we move towards the US session. The recent correction lower found strong support into a test of the 1973.51 level with the price bouncing sharply form that support. The weakness in USD currently has been a major supporting factor for gold prices. With the Fed now widely tipped to be done with hiking, instead looking to cut rates through next year, USD has depreciated significantly.
 

Fed Rate Cut Timing

Looking ahead, the key focus for traders now will be attempting to gauge the timing of the first Fed rate hike. Any incoming data weakness will see market pricing brought forward, dragging USD lower in the short and allowing gold prices to rally. On the other hand, any fresh uptick in key indicators, particularly inflation data, will likely see rate cut expectations pushed out, allowing for USD to strengthen near-term and weighing on gold.
 

US Data Due

In terms of key data to watch this week, we have the CB consumer confidence release due later today ahead of the much bigger final USD GDP figure tomorrow and weekly unemployment claims. On Friday we then have core PCE which will be a closely watched release given its importance to the Fed as an inflation gauge.
 

Technical Views

Gold

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The bounce off the 1973.51 level keeps bullish focus alive for now with a break of 2069.41 still the main focus for bulls. To the downside, 1973.51 is the key pivot to watch. Should we break back below that level, focus will shift to the deeper support set at 1871.04. 

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