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Gold Heavily Sold on NFP Pop

Gold prices are trading very tentatively on the back of Friday’s sell-off. Gold futures fell more than 4% in response to the upside surprise in Friday’s US jobs data which saw traders pairing back their September easing expectations. Market pricing for a September cut had been sitting around the 60% mark ahead of the data and has now fallen back to around 40%. With USD firmly supported on the back of the data, gold prices look vulnerable to further downside near-term.
 

Major Data/Event Risk on Wednesday

Looking ahead this week, the main focus for traders will be Wednesday’s CPI and FOMC meeting. CPI is forecast to have held unchanged at 3.4% last month. However, if we see any fresh uptick in inflation, this will no doubt further dilute September easing expectations, driving USD higher near-term and putting added pressure on gold.  The extent to which gold sells off will depend on the tone of the FOMC. In the event that we see higher CPI on Wednesday, the Fed is likely to sound more hawkish which should amplify selling in gold. However, if inflation is seen undershooting forecasts on Wednesday, leading to a more dovish tone from the Fed, we could see gold prices recovering quickly through the back of the week.
 

Technical Views

Gold

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Gold prices failed into the bull channel highs last week with price reversing heavily back under the 2,364.93 level. Price is now sitting just atop the 2,275.43 level. This is a key support zone for gold and potentially the neckline of a head and shoulders patten. If we break below here, focus will turn to deeper support at 2,149.72 with the bull channel lows coming in around there also. 

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