Gold (XAU/USD) bounces past the $2,490s on Friday after pulling back down to technical support at $2,470 in the previous session. The precious metal’s recovery is aided by a weaker US Dollar (USD) – to which it is negatively correlated – and lower US Treasury yields of a longer majority (US 3-month Note yields are actually slightly higher at the time of publication), which indicate the market expects interest rates to fall in the future – a plus for Gold as it is a non-interest paying asset.  

The overall outlook remains positive for Gold ahead of the key event for the day – the speech of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell, at the central banker symposium in Jackson Hole. Powell is expected to confirm market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rate cuts at its September 18 meeting. 

Gold broadly supported by negative US data

Gold trades up a half of a percent after shedding over 1.0% on Thursday. Gold’s decline of the previous day was helped by a fall in the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by a bumper 0.50% in September. From a chance of mid-30% the probability has fallen to mid-20% overnight, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Mixed Purchasing Manager Survey (PMI) data and Jobless Claims on Thursday, as well as recent prudent commentary from some Fed officials, could have been a factor in the recalibration. 

Preliminary S&P Global Composite Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) data for August – which gauges activity levels in key industry sectors – fell to 54.1 from 54.3 in July, although this was not as much as the decline to 53.5 that economists had expected.

US Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0 from 49.6 when no-change had been expected. Services, meanwhile, rose to 55.2 from 55.0, when a decline to 54.0 had been forecast. 

Jobless Claims were mixed, with Initial Jobless Claims rising to 232K – slightly above the previous upwardly-revised 228K, and estimates of 230K – but Continuing Claims marginally lower than expected, though higher than previously. 

Technical Analysis: Gold pulls back to top of old range and bounces

Gold (XAU/USD) corrects back down to support at the top of its old range and uses it as a launchpad for a recovery on Friday. Despite recent weakness, the short-term trend remains bullish. Given “the trend is your friend” this continues to favor longs over shorts. 

XAU/USD Daily Chart

(Click on image to enlarge)

The breakout of the range on August 14 generated an upside target at roughly $2,550, calculated by taking the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of the range’s height and extrapolating it higher. This target is the minimum expectation for a follow-through after a breakout based on principles of technical analysis. 

A break back inside the range, however, could negate the upside projected target. Such a move would be confirmed on a close below $2,470 (August 22 low). It would change the picture for Gold and bring the short-term uptrend into doubt. 

Gold is in a broad uptrend on medium and long-term time frames, however, which further supports an overall bullish outlook for the precious metal.

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