Written by Clive P. Maund

All the technical evidence suggests that gold is building out an intermediate top area [at this point in time]…After its parabolic ramp up in January and early February, it has been struggling to make further progress…Although it has edged ahead a little, the passage of time has resulted in its breaking down from the parabola simply by moving sideways, which has, unknown to many, opened up the risk of a potentially severe drop…

The Gold 6-month Chart

The most plausible interpretation of pattern development since the parabolic blow-off spike in early – mid February is that it is a bearish Rising Wedge, which the price broke down from about a week ago, before a backtest of the breakdown point with the big up day last Wednesday when the Fed didn’t raise rates, which triggered panic short covering. The pattern may also be classified as an upsloping Head-and-Shoulders top, but to avoid clutter we haven’t marked this on the chart…

The Gold 1-year Chart

The chief reason for showing the 1-year chart for gold below is so you can compare it with the latest COT chart shown directly below it, which also goes back a year, but this chart does also reveal that gold’s advance ran into trouble when it slammed into the trendline target shown.

Gold’s latest COT shows that Commercial short and Large Spec long positions are still at a very high level, which is bearish. There was a slight drop last week but we should not be fooled by this – these figures were taken for last Tuesday’s close, when gold had been dropping for 3 days and before it blasted higher on the Fed on Wednesday, so it reasonable to presume that the real readings are back up near or even above the highs. These readings strongly suggest that a sizeable drop is looming.

The Gold Hedgers Chart

The latest gold hedgers chart, a form of COT chart, is bearish.

Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

The Gold 6-year Chart

The 6-year chart for gold below…[clearly shows] that, while gold’s rally from the start of the year has certainly been impressive, it is does not necessarily mark the start of a new bull market – it might, but first it will have to break clear out of the major downtrend shown on this chart, which is has yet to do. Right now it is at a perilous juncture perched at the upper boundary of the major downtrend after a steep rise, with two important factors suggesting that it is likely to get beaten down again, one being the highly unfavorable COT structure that we have just looked at, and the other being the fact that the slow stochastic is rolling over at a high cyclical peak – look what followed after the previous occasions that this happened.

The Gold Fundamentals

Fundamentally, there are two negative factors coming into play too:

1. the return of a “risk on” mentality where investors are more interested in the broad stock market than in gold and
2. the prospect of the dollar rallying again after hitting a downside target.

The Gold Optimism Chart

The gold Optix, or Optimism chart, is in middling ground and doesn’t give much indication one way or the other.

Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index Chart

Finally, the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index is at levels normally indicative of a top. By far the majority of investors are bullish on the sector now, which is obviously a sentiment extreme carrying much more downside risk than upside potential.

The U.S. Dollar Index 6-month Chart

Now we will look at the latest charts for the dollar index. On its 6-month chart we can see that it dropped to arrive at a trendline target on Thursday, following the Fed saying it wasn’t going to raise rates. With the bad news out, and the dollar having arrived at a target not far above strong support in an oversold state, there is a good chance that it will turn higher here – and that the entire commodity complex, which has had a good run on dollar weakness, will now turn lower.

There are other factors besides whether the Fed decides to raise rates or not that will determine the dollar’s trend going forward, with positive factors being safe haven movement into the dollar, and a possible continuation of the carry trade unwind, so it is dangerous to assume that it is “done for” just because the Fed didn’t raise rates.

The U.S. Dollar Index 2-year Chart

Whilst a break below the key support in the 93 area shown on the 2-year dollar index chart shown below would obviously be bearish, and strongly bullish for gold and silver and doubtless other commodities, the latest COTs for the dollar and especially copper, gold and silver suggest that this is not going to happen, and that instead the dollar will turn up from here, which it is certainly well placed to do.

The conclusion, therefore, is that the dollar is going to turn up here, or very soon, and that commodities are going to get smacked back down again, especially copper, gold, silver, and oil. Gold in particular is very vulnerable after it recent frothiness and wild excitement among gold bugs.