Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:

• The overall Gold Trend: Strongly bullish.
• Today's Gold Support Points: $4555 – $4510 – $4440 per ounce
• Today's Gold Resistance Points: $4640 – $4675 – $4720 per ounce.
   

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Today's Gold Trading Signals:

• Sell gold from the resistance level of $4700 with a target of $4350 and a stop-loss at $4760.
• Buy gold from the support level of $4520 with a target of $4700 and a stop-loss at $4470.
   

Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:

Generally, gold's outlook for this week remains bullish. The gold market is expected to receive positive momentum amid growing market expectations of a potential US interest rate cut in the near future. On gold trading platforms, spot gold prices closed last week's trading stable around $4,595 per ounce after experiencing profit-taking at the end of the week, with losses extending to the support level of $4,536 per ounce.
 

Will gold prices rise this week?

According to gold analysts, the answer is yes. Demand for gold as a safe haven is steadily increasing. This coincides with expectations of a US interest rate cut before and after the end of Jerome Powell's term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. In this regard, gold investors will react to key economic releases this week, including inflation figures from major economies, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, GDP growth data, Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, and initial jobless claims, all of which could provide new indications about the future course of US monetary policy.

Technically, the stability of gold prices above the $4,500 resistance level confirms the strength of the bulls' control over the gold market. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is around 67, nearing the overbought level. Simultaneously, the MACD indicator has already crossed into overbought territory, but investors may disregard this and continue to monitor and react to the underlying strengths of the gold market. In addition to the factors mentioned above, central bank and hedge fund purchases of gold will continue to provide further support for the bullish outlook for gold in the coming period. Central banks have long been increasing their gold reserves, while exchange-traded funds (ETFs) absorb a significant portion of the supply. Geopolitical tensions and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty reinforce the role of precious metals as a hedge for investment portfolios.

Across reputable trading platforms, the gold/US dollar pair rose by more than 2% last week amid geopolitical risks stemming from Iran, leading to increased investor demand for safe-haven assets. Generally, expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, a weak dollar, low Treasury yields, and continued central bank purchases remain supportive factors for gold.
 

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets do not see a high probability of a US interest rate cut in the first quarter of 2026.
 

Gold Price Bearish Scenario

On the daily chart, the price has broken below the key support levels of $4410 and $4300, confirming a genuine shift in the gold trend to a downward one. Pay close attention. While only two weeks into 2026, gold is experiencing its best start to a year ever, having risen by $256 per ounce so far this month. Prices have also risen by 5.6% over the past two weeks but still have a long way to go to surpass the start of last year, when gold prices rose by more than 7% in January.

Some commodity market experts believe technical indicators increasingly point to a potential slowdown in the gold price rally. Banks, hedge funds, and even individuals not actively involved in the markets are increasingly forecasting gold prices for the end of the year, a clear sign of excessive optimism. Such excessive optimism in any asset class can precede a sharp decline. However, not all analysts expect gold prices to stabilize, given the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
 

Trading Advice:

We continue to recommend buying gold on every strong price dip, while closely monitoring the market influence factors mentioned in this analysis.

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