Getting Real About Silver
Image Source: Pixabay
My near obsession with silver back in 2024 has stood me in good stead. With today marking a lifetime high in the price of silver (as represented by the long-term /SI silver continuous futures contract) and besting even the highs of 1979 and 2011, I figured it would be good to reflect on this a moment.
Glancing at the chart above, silver seems very expensive. However, I must emphasize that nominal prices are utterly misleading. It would be the equivalent of zipping back in time to tell your Dad in 1973 that you made $120,000 per year. He would understandably wonder what company made you its CEO, not understanding that $120,000 is in many cases an entry-level salary for a college graduate.
By the same token, $52 silver seems super high, but………it isn’t. Let’s perform the simple exercise of dividing the same silver chart by the CPI (please note the CPI lags badly, particularly since the government is shut down, so this is updated only as of August 1st). As you can see below, the present price isn’t anywhere close to where it was in 2011, let alone 1979.
Let’s do the same experiment with the M2 money supply. Looks almost identical, doesn’t it? The true lifetime high was during the Hunt brothers’ attempt to corner the market in 1979 (which bankrupted one of the world’s richest families at the time). This chart merely indicates that 2023 was an insanely CHEAP time to buy silver, and that it probably has a long, long, LONG way to go.
Let’s look at that first chart again, but stretching the white space above and also on the right. The bone-chilling pattern I am seeing here is one of the cleanest, purest, and BIGGEST cup-with-handle bullish patterns I’ve ever witnessed. No, strike that. It isn’t one of them. It’s THE biggest. This thing is a monster.
Does this mean silver is heading to $100 an ounce? $200? $500? It might! What I think is terrifying about this is…………what does that really MEAN to us as a society when precious metals are sending this kind of signal?
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