Facta Non Verba. The Corn & Ethanol Report

We started off the day with Challenger Job Cuts (Mar), Export Sales, Personal Income MoM (Feb), Personal Spending MoM (Feb), Core Price Index MoM & YoY (Feb), Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (26/Mar) and Continuing Jobless Claims (19/Mar) at 7:30 A.M., Fed Williams Speech at 8:00 A.M., Chicago PMI (Mar) at 8:45 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks at 11:00 A.M.

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Facta Non Verba in English means Deeds Not Words. And we have all heard Putin’s words not backed up but doing dirty deeds. He is a dictator killing innocent people and should meet the inferno regions sooner than later.

On the Corn Front we have Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks. With the war on in the Ukraine and the Russians wanting to control the Black Sea and other real estate that is not theirs we have the entire complex of commodities swinging on the next headline. Yesterday traders were talking about farmers switching their intentions on planting corn, soybeans and wheat, anticipating what their best revenue center. These numbers are drastically changed as the free navigation and trade will be embroiled to the Black Sea in today’s data. The markets will follow the latest round of headlines as the commodity markets are in a volatile mood with huge swings. In the overnight electronic session the May corn is currently trading at 738 ¼ which is a ¼ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 741 to 732 ½.

On the Ethanol Front the demand has dropped 2.1% on the week, while stocks are close to a 2-year high. According to the data, domestic ethanol has been above 1 million bpd in 23 of the last 25 weeks. US refiner and net ethanol blender ethanol inputs fell again last week, down 18,000 bpd to a six-week low of 847,000 bpd with a differential of 4% from last year. These are not encouraging numbers. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.

On the Crude Oil Front headline after headline continue to swing the markets with vicious volatility. Yesterday’s announcement by the Biden administration is to release a record SPR release to help drop gasoline prices. As we have known in the past this is a temporary token move that is not a gamechanger, but not realizing what has been said time and time again. It’s the energy policy stupid. We have been talking ever since the closure of Anwar, the Keystone Pipeline XL, government lands, offshore oil and capping pipelines was a prerequisite of the pickle we find ourselves in today. Today is also Last Trading day on April gasoline and heating oil. In the overnight electronic session the May crude oil is currently trading at 10118 which is 664 points lower. The trading range has been 10780 to 10016.

On the Natural Gas Front this market is no different playing headline to headline with wild volatility we have not seen in sometime, if at all. This morning we have the EIA Gas Storage and the Thomson Reuters poll with 13 analysts participating estimates range from an injection of 34 bcf to a withdrawal of 8 bcf, with the median build of 22 bcf and the actual 21 bcf. This compares to the one-year injection of 19 bcf and the five-year average build of 8 bcf. In the overnight electronic session the May natural gas is currently trading at 5.500 which is 0.105 lower. The trading range has been 5.559 to 5.454.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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