Gasoline was stable in September but October will be another matter.

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Unleaded gas futures courtesy of Trading Economics, annotations by Mish

Unleaded Gasoline Futures

Unleaded gasoline futures are the key input into the price of gasoline.

Prices started and ended September near $2.37. Don't look for much CPI help from gasoline in September.

AAA Gasoline Prices

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On October 6, the AAA reported Gas Demand Spikes Contributing to Rising Pump Prices

Since Monday, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline has risen by seven cents to $3.86. According to new data from the Energy Information Administration, gas demand increased nationally from 8.83 million b/d to 9.47 million b/d last week, and total domestic gasoline stocks decreased significantly by 4.7 million bbl to 207.5 million bbl. High gasoline demand, amid tight supply, has led to higher pump prices nationwide.

Pump prices on the West Coast have increased due to ongoing refinery maintenance at roughly six refineries, severely limiting the region’s supply. However, refinery restarts and California officials allowing less expensive winter-blend gasoline to be sold a month ahead of schedule should offer drivers relief at the pump in the coming days. For the upper Midwest, pump prices have spiked as a deadly refinery fire in Toledo, OH has tightened supply in the region. According to some reports, the 160,000 barrel-per-day BP-Husky Toledo refinery may be offline until December due to an ongoing investigation into the blaze.

Since last Thursday, these 10 states have seen the largest increases in their averages: Alaska (+38 cents), Illinois (+25 cents), Ohio (+25 cents), California (+24 cents), Nevada (+22 cents), Oregon (+22 cents), Indiana (+21 cents), Washington (+19 cents), Arizona (+17 cents) and Michigan (+17 cents).

Natural Gas Futures 

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Unleaded gas futures courtesy of Trading Economics, annotations by Mish

Look for negative CPI help from gasoline in October and possibly natural gas as well.

If the price of rent goes up in October, which I view as likely, we will see another big surge in the October CPI.

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