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Oil prices are getting flipped flopped on reports that talk between Iran and the US are chaired but then, maybe not. After reports said that Secretary of State Marco Rubio gave statements suggesting that Iran talks might be postponed because Iran imposed preconditions and did not want to address the wholesale slaughter of their citizens, oil prices surged. Then oil came back down after the Iranian minister later stated that the talks are still ongoing. However, the question remains: will there be empty chairs and empty tables? There’s a grief that can’t be spoken. There’s a pain that goes on and on. Empty chairs at empty tables. Now my friends are dead and gone. Is this the outcome?

This confusion came after some media reports (e.g., from Axios and others) suggested the talks had been canceled or collapsed due to disagreements over the format, location (shifted from Turkey to Oman), and scope—Iran insisting on limiting discussions strictly to the nuclear program, while the US wanted to include ballistic missiles, regional proxies, and other issues. So, what exactly did Secretary of State Rubio say? According to reports, Rubio stated: “If the Iranians want to meet, we’re ready,” and reiterated, “The United States is prepared to meet with them… If the Iranians want to meet, we’re ready.” He emphasized that for any dialogue to be “meaningful,” discussions must cover more than just the nuclear issue—they should also address Iran’s ballistic missile program, its support for proxy and terror groups in the region, and its treatment of its own citizens. Rubio voiced skepticism about reaching an agreement, remarking, “I’m not sure you can reach a deal with these guys, but we’re going to try to find out,” while underscoring that the U.S. remains open to talks and does not consider agreeing to meet as making concessions.

After the oil surge came, prices snapped back when reports came out that Iran’s official position on the recent talks are proceeding, not canceled. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (also spelled Araqchi) confirmed via a post on X (formerly Twitter) that the talks are scheduled for Friday in Muscat, Oman, at around 10 a.m. local time. He expressed gratitude to Oman for arranging it.

And then it comes back to oil inventories which reflect the fact that the US economy is doing amazingly well in spite of the fact that President Trump’s critics about his economic policies have been proven to be spectacularly wrong. There is no sign of an oil surplus in the US. As of January 30, commercial crude inventories stood at 420 million barrels—below last year’s 423 million and 26 million under the ten-year average. This deficit has increased since late 2025, likely because of well freeze-offs and lower domestic production after a recent winter storm according to the EIA and Kemp Energy. Surging oil demand due to the red-hot US economy and the bone-chilling winter weather that’s cranking up the heat—literally, has been the driver.

The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (week ending January 30, 2026), total products supplied—our go-to proxy for real US oil demand—averaged a strong 20.8 million b/d over the prior four weeks, posting a solid 0.9% gain year-over-year. One sharp weekly snapshot even hit implied demand at 21.353 million b/d, with a hefty 0.678 million b/d jump week-on-week, that was helped along with the pure winter magic courtesy of wicked winter storm and the chilly arctic blast.

Heating oil and distillate demand exploded as folks fired up furnaces, while natural gas constraints pushed oil and dual-fuel power plants to handle up to 44% of Northeast output during peak stress. Distillate inventories took a massive hit with sharp draws, underscoring that cold-weather demand boost. Gasoline held steady at around 8.3 million b/d (four-week average), proving transport demand remains resilient even as prices stay friendly. Now just imagine what gasoline demand might have been if some folks were able to dig their car out of the snow? Or find it! I am sure there are a few cars that are still buried! Or an EV that lost its charge quick after a wicked temperature plunge.

Sure, the broader EIA outlook calls for modest annual growth—US liquid fuels consumption hovering near 20.6 milli million in 2026, flat to slightly up from recent years. Yet lower gasoline prices because of drill baby drill and pro energy policies(~$2.92/gal projected) are encouraging more driving and in turn more economic growth and along with efficiency gains, and a strong US foreign policy is keeping alid on explosive gas price hikes leading to a Trump era of lower gasoline prices.

But right now, the winter weather tailwind and economic resilience are giving demand a real shot in the arm. Even on the global front, oil demand growth is heating up nicely for 2026, with non-OECD powerhouses—Asia leading the charge—and lower prices unlocking more consumption after last year’s tariff and economic bumps.

Remember, in the International Energy Agency’s January report, growth is upgraded to 930 kb/d in 2026 (from 850 kb/d in 2025), pushing total demand toward ~105 million b/d—thanks to economic normalization, cheaper barrels stimulating transport and industrial use, and petrochemical feedstock strength. The EIA said that global liquid fuels consumption is climbing by about 1.1 million b/d in 2026, with non-OECD countries (India, China) driving the lion’s share. OPEC’s view is even more bullish at about 1.4 million b/d growth, highlighting emerging market momentum.

Natural gas volatility is almost as crazy as the weather as we should see a record-breaking withdrawal in weekly inventory. Expectations are that the draw could surpass the previous all-time high of -359 Bcf from January 2018 (during a polar vortex) and -338 Bcf from February 2021 (Winter Storm Uri), largely due to the recent intense cold snap that drove record heating demand and caused production freeze-offs in key natural gas basins. The consensus among analysts is a withdrawal of about -379 Bcf, which would flip storage inventories from approximately 5% above the five-year average to around 1% below, signaling much tighter market balances going forward.

For comparison, the previous week’s draw was -242 Bcf, which was already larger than the five-year average of -208 Bcf. At the end of that period, stocks stood at 2,823 Bcf, which was 206 Bcf higher year-over-year and 143 Bcf above the five-year average. If today’s draw meets or exceeds expectations, it could provide further support for natural gas prices by eroding the surplus built up earlier this season. However, forecasts for milder weather in mid-February—warmer nationwide except in the Northeast—could limit price gains, especially as production is expected to recover to about 106.4 Bcf/d. Additionally, LNG exports remain robust, averaging 18.3 Bcf/d in early February and offering a supportive floor for the market.

At the same time some in the natural gas industry worry that even with this record-breaking withdrawal the penchant for production of gas to return to record highs may cap prices unless we get cold again. Call Phil Flynn if you want to get involved 888-264-5665. That’s why we are watching the Fox Weather ap. Fox Weather reports that more snow brewing for Northeast, Great Lakes this weekend ahead of winter’s coldest arctic blast so far. They say the snow will spread across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, with portions of the I-95 corridor likely seeing snow amid winter’s coldest arctic blast yet. They say that this fast-moving clipper system is expected to bring additional snow to a region that is already well above its winter average. It comes after a historic winter storm dropped snow accumulations in the double digits for much of the Northeast.

The Fox Forecast Center said an active weather pattern will continue across the eastern U.S. as an area of low pressure is expected to move across the Northern Tier and into the Great Lakes before tracking eastward into New England. The Great Lakes and Northeast will see the impacts of a fast-moving clipper system on Friday, with lingering activity expected into Saturday. New York City could see an additional 1 to 3 inches of snow, while cities like Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Albany, New York, will only see up to an inch. Higher snow totals are expected in the elevated terrain of West Virginia. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for these mountainous areas, where 5 to 8 inches of snow is possible. Yikes

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