Wheat Elliott Wave Analysis

After a 2-month rally in August and September 2024, wheat is shedding profit again as long-term sellers look to regain control. It appears the long-term bearish trend from March 2022 may not have finished after all. Thus, despite the past weeks' rally, traders shouldn’t write off a renewed sell-off in the coming weeks.

Daily Chart Analysis

On the daily chart, the bearish trend from March 2022 appears to be near completion. The structure is an impulse wave and in the last leg i.e. wave ((5)). Meanwhile, wave ((5)) has probably completed a diagonal in late July 2024. However, given that the decline to July 2024 appears more like a 5-wave structure and the bounce that followed is corrective. Hence, one more leg lower in wave C of (5) of ((5)) is very likely to happen.

H4 Chart Analysis

 From the H4 chart, the response to the end of wave B is evolving into a ((i))-((ii))-(i)-(ii) structure. Thus if the 11-October high is not breached and the price breaks below the 22-October low, then the decline from 617 should continue for wave (iii) of ((iii)). Wave C of ((5)) is expected to drop below 500 in the coming weeks while bounces end below 617.

Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo

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