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Soybeans Elliott Wave Analysis 
Function - Trend 
Mode - Impulse 
Structure - Double Zigzag for (2)
Position - Wave 1 of (3)
Direction - Wave 1 of (3) 
Details - Wave 1 of (3) broke to the downside and is now leaving the congestion area. More downside is expected especially if blue wave ‘iv’ of C of (2) is breached. Same as the previous update.

Soybean prices appear to have completed a corrective structure that began in late February and could now be resuming the long-term bearish trend. In this analysis, we will also consider an alternative scenario in case the corrective bounce from late February has not yet concluded.

On the daily chart, a bearish cycle began in June 2022 at 1785. Following nearly two years of sell-off, we can identify the emerging bearish structure as a zigzag subdivided into the primary degree waves A-B-C (circled in blue). In October 2023, blue wave A ended with a diagonal at 1249’6, followed by a shallow corrective bounce for blue wave B up to 1398. Since reaching 1398 in November 2023, a bearish impulse wave (1) of blue wave C concluded at 1129 in late February 2024, where the current corrective bounce initiated. Currently, prices are in wave (2). Wave (2) completed a zigzag structure and might now be heading below 1129 for wave (3). Alternatively, there could be a corrective pullback above 1129, leading to a double zigzag rally for wave (2). Regardless of the scenario, a sell-off in the coming days seems likely.

The H4 chart indicates that wave (2) completed at 1258, and prices are moving downwards in wave 1 of (3) or blue wave 'a' of X in the case of a W-X-Y higher rally for wave (2). We should see the current decline complete at least a zigzag structure towards the 1190-1170 range in the coming days. Preferably, our primary count anticipates an impulse wave decline below 1129 for wave (3).

In summary, soybean prices are poised to continue their long-term bearish trend following the completion of a corrective structure that started in late February. The daily chart shows a well-defined bearish cycle from June 2022, with the recent corrective bounce forming wave (2). The H4 chart suggests that wave (2) ended at 1258, and we are now in wave 1 of (3) or in the early stages of blue wave 'a' of X, depending on the alternative scenario. Key levels to watch are 1190-1170 for a zigzag completion and 1129 for a potential impulse wave decline. Traders should prepare for a sell-off while remaining open to the possibility of a higher corrective rally if the double zigzag scenario plays out.

Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo

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