Natural Gas
Mode - Larger degree bullish correction
Structure - Impulse wave wave C (blue) of Flat
Position - Wave (3)
Direction - Wave (3) is still in play
Details:  The surge above the key resistance zone marked has called for a re-analysis. Thus daily and H4 have changed to the alternative scenario in mind.  Recovery from 1.524 emerging into an impose and now into wave (3).

Natural Gas has extended its recovery from the February 2024 low, and the commodity is now anticipated to rise further in an impulse Elliott wave pattern. Meanwhile, the bigger picture indicates that prices are in a corrective phase following the bearish cycle that concluded between August 2022 and April 2023.

On the daily chart, a bearish impulse wave can be identified, lasting from August 2022 to April 2023. After such a decline, a corrective recovery is expected in the opposite direction, moving upwards. The emerging pattern in this case is an expanding flat. Expanding flats are 3-3-5 ABC structures where the second 3-wave segment breaks the starting price of the first 3-wave segment. Additionally, the third leg, which is a 5-wave segment, surpasses the endpoint of the first 3-wave segment (or the starting price of the second 3-wave segment). 

On the Natural Gas price chart, the emerging flat began at 1.944 (April 2023 low) and completed the first three-wave segment—blue wave A—at 3.66 (October 2023 high). The second three-wave segment, blue wave B, then started and extended below 1.944 in a three-wave structure, reaching 1.524 (February 2024 low). The final leg, blue wave C, is currently ongoing and is expected to extend above 3.66 with an impulsive move. The price is currently in wave (3) of blue wave C.

On the H4 chart, we examine the sub-waves of wave (3). The price is currently in the third sub-wave, which is targeted to reach the 2.998 Fibonacci level or potentially higher before the fourth sub-wave begins to move downwards. In the near term, the potential for further upside in Natural Gas prices remains strong.

Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo

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