Image Source: Pexels

PPI figure on seasonally adjusted by author data. NSA m/m change is 36.5% (log differences).
 

Figure 1: Top panel – Consumer Price of Dozen Eggs (blue, left scale), ERS forecast of January 2025 for end 2025 (blue square, left scale), both in $, and PPI for fresh eggs (tan, right scale), 1991M12=100. Bottom panel: Trading Economics futures price for dozen eggs (blue), and TradingEconomics model and analyst based forecast (gray). Source: BLS, ERS, TradingEconomics.com.

Addendum:

ERS, PPI-based, and futures implied egg prices…

Figure 2: Consumer Price of Dozen Eggs (blue, left scale), ERS forecast of January 2025 for end 2025 (blue square, left scale), OLS forecast based on price-lagged PPI relationship (red triangle), all in $, and PPI for fresh eggs (brown, right scale), and TradingEconomics forecast (2/13/2025) implied PPI for eggs (tan square), all in1991M12=100. Trading Economics futures price for dozen eggs (blue), and TradingEconomics model and analyst based forecast (gray). Source: BLS, ERS, TradingEconomics.com.

Forecast using lagged PPI regression equation (2020M01-2025M01) is:

p_t = -2.85 + 0.69ppi_t-1 + u_t

Adj.R² = 0.88, SER = 0.125, DW = 1.96. Bold indicates significant at 1% msl using HAC robust standard errors.

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