Image Source: Pexels

Outpacing ERS forecast. Implied futures suggest higher prices yet.

Figure 1: Top panel – Consumer Price of Dozen Eggs (blue, left scale), ERS forecast of January 2025 for end 2024 (blue square, left scale), both in $, and PPI for fresh eggs (tan, right scale), 1991M12=100. Bottom panel: Trading Economics futures price for dozen eggs (blue), and TradingEconomics model and analyst based forecast (gray). Source: BLS, ERS, TradingEconomics.com.

As for grocery prices overall, there was no decline recorded in January. Rather the CPI component for food at home rose m/m 5.5% (annualized).

Figure 2: CPI for food at home (black), USDA Economic Research Service forecast of January 2025 (blue square), 95% confidence interval (blue +). Source: BLS via FRED, ERS, author’s calculations.

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