We kicked off the day with Consumer Inflation Expectations at 9:00 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M.

The BLS’s monthly Establishment Survey showed that February nonfarm payrolls rose by 151,000 jobs versus 125,000 in January. Government payrolls rose by just 11,000 in February compared to 44,000 in January, reflecting DOGE’s easy effectiveness in streamlining the government labor force. At the same time, the Manufacturing industry added 10,000 jobs compared to a, 5,000 jobless in January, and total private payrolls rose by 141,000 compared to 81,000 in the previous month. This was the largest increase in manufacturing jobs since November 2024 and the 2^nd largest since November 2023. The Household Survey showed that the unemployment rates rose slightly to 4.1% while the U-6 unemployment rate, which includes marginally attached workers and forced part-time workers rose to a 40-month high of 8%.

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South American Weather Pattern Discussion

Mato Grosso to Be Well Watered; Rest of Brazil Needs Rain:

The South American forecast continues to trend drier in central & northern Brazil. The GFS and EU models remain reluctant to pull any meaningful expansion of rainfall there into 7 – and – 10 day forecast, and the confidence in the arrival of a pattern shift is decreasing. There’s still time for regular rain in C & N Brazil to boost safrinha yield potential – even in the driest areas – but soaking rain will be needed by late month. Warmth will remainin place across all but west/northwest Mato Grosso do Sul into March 16^th. There are no issues in Mato Grosso – which accounts for 50% of the Brazilian safrinha area – but the rest of safrinha must be monitored closely moving forward. Ag Resources (ARC’s) concern is that the monsoon continues to sputter in a year that every bushel of corn is needed. April rainfall will be critical.

Corn Comments & Analysis

CBOT Corn Extends Rally; US Corn Cheapest in the World; Brazilian Forecast Critical Next Week:

May CBOT corn ended firm for a third day, with $4.55 now solid Support. US demand and potential has brightened on the break, though clients must be prepared for additional headlined – based volatility. Trumps 30-day tariff reprieve is welcomed, but the market may be forced to relive last week in early April. Following daily trade policy news is tiring – but critical to managing risk in 2025. The major forecasting models have again pushed any meaningful pattern shift in central Brazil into the 11-15 day period and forecast over the weekend will determine whether there’s hope for needed showers in Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana, & Sao Paulo. ARC notes it’s critical that abundant rain there falls in March as normal rain totals in the month of April drop 2-4”. Risk premium will be added if Brazilian dryness lingers. Managed funds in the week ending Tuesday liquidated 118,000 long positions. Fund length is no longerexcessive. Brazilian weather is top priority after the release of tomorrow’s WASDE.

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