From EconoFact today:

The U.S. agricultural sector is facing multiple challenges. High input and production costs together with low commodity prices for some of the country’s major crops — including soy, corn and wheat — contribute to slim or even negative profit margins for these crops and forecasts of low net farm incomes. The Trump administration’s trade and immigration policies are adding to the challenges and increasing the economic uncertainty facing the agricultural sector. In this context, the Trump administration is considering providing several billions in additional support to farmers. But the source of the funds is unclear and difficult to resolve in the midst of a government shutdown.

Here’s a summary graph:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Not included in the EconoFact article is this graph (from the American Farm Bureau):

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source:Nelson, Parum, FB Market Intel, 3 Sept 2025.

One could interpret the change from February to September forecasts as essentially the impact of Trump Administration policies coupled with changes in growing and global economic conditions, including responses to US trade policies. One of those responses is the sales (or nonsales) of soybeans to China:

Source: Draper, NYT, 25 Sept 2025.

The soybean farmers of the Midwest thank Trump!

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