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Oil prices are slipping down faster than Santa goes down the chimney on Christmas Eve as $55.12 WTI, the low of this year, is in play. And the main reason this happening is because of President Trump’s policies of using US energy dominance to push peace and reduce geopolitical risk tensions. By leveraging America’s energy dominance and keeping oil prices in the bargain basement, Trump is turning the pressure up in Moscow and turning the tables at the negotiation table.

According to U.S. officials, we’re closer than ever to a breakthrough, with just a few loose ends left to tie up—think of it as the final ornament on a Christmas tree. The Berlin talks saw heavy hitters like U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy hashing out a U.S.-drafted peace plan, all while Russia’s recent attacks have put security guarantees for Ukraine front and center. Add in reconstruction blueprints and promises to deter future aggression, and you’ve got a plan that’s starting to look gift-wrapped. The real holiday surprise? Moscow may be ready to let Ukraine climb aboard the EU sleigh, signaling a major thaw in relations and a potential new era for Europe. It’s a classic case of energy prices driving diplomacy, and right now, Santa’s got more than presents on his sleigh—he’s carrying the hope of peace. US officials indicated that Russia is likely to “accept all these things,” but more discussions are still required.

Russia needs to make a deal because low oil prices are hurting the Russian economy. In factBloomberg News is reporting that Russian crude prices have dropped to their lowest levels since the Ukraine war began, with exporters now making just above $40.00 a barrel for their shipments. According to Bloomberg, Russian oil prices have taken a nosedive—plunging 28% over the past three months—as fresh restrictions hit heavyweights like Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC. These new rules are pushing those big players to slash prices even further, and now exporters are barely scraping by with just over $40.00 a barrel. That’s not just a headache for Russia’s oil industry and government coffers; the ripple effect is shaking up global markets. Western pressure has forced Russian crude exporters to change their game, and even refiners in powerhouse buyers like India are feeling the squeeze. With benchmark oil tumbling below $60.00 a barrel for the first time since May, 2025, it could be shaping up to deliver some real market surprises.

The slump in oil prices comes as consumer confidence and business confidence is on the rise. Call Phil Flynn if you want to get involved at 888-264-5665. It could be that low oil prices help spring what could be a surge of economic growth. There’s no doubt that the reduction of geopolitical risk factors has played a big role in this era of lower oil prices under Donald Trump and the benefits will show up in stock prices, the bottom line and even new jobs. Today the market will get a whole slew of jobs data that could influence the price of oil. A better than expected jobs report may pressure oil a bit because one of the things we’ve been looking at is that oil has been ignoring the recent weakness in the dollar and the rising expectations for interest rate cuts.

The oil market seems to be disconnected from the high flying commodities like silver, copper, platinum and palladium. If you look at the relationship between those markets, as I pointed out in previous reports, they are at historically low levels. In other words, crude oil is one of the most valuable and inexpensive commodities on the planet. Call Phil Flynn 888-264-5665 to take advantage of the upcoming market moves. You’re going to get more bang for buck out of oil today than ever before in history. That is why President Trump’s policies of trying to create an environment of examples supply low oil prices is paying dividends for the American people.

Even natural gas prices are plummeting as the temperatures look for a major rebound from the early Arctic blast. The Fox Weather models are turning up the heat for late December. The early December snap had traders dreaming of a blockbuster heating season, but now, those heating degree days are melting away like Christmas snow on a warm New Year’s Day. Analysts aren’t mincing words either, calling this a “demand collapse” that’s gutting expectations and sending futures prices tumbling.

The plot thickens with U.S. dry gas production roaring ahead at record highs, somewhere in the neighborhood of 109 to 110 Bcf a day. Supply is outpacing demand, and that’s making the bears dance. Storage is still looking pretty healthy too, just above the five-year average, and withdrawals like the 177 Bcf for the week ending December 5 aren’t nearly enough to tighten things up, especially with the mild weather outlook. It’s like trying to light a fire with wet logs — not much spark.

Let’s not forget about LNG exports. Yes, they’re providing a nice demand cushion, but they haven’t kicked into high gear enough to rescue the market from this weather-driven slide. Even with solid baseline support, the bulls just aren’t getting the lift they need. Step back and look at the big picture for 2025, and prices are still running hotter than last year — up 18 to 23 percent, thanks to robust LNG shipments and new demand from places like data centers. But right now, it’s all about the weather. If Jack Frost keeps playing hard to get, we could see more moderation. Of course, if the cold comes roaring back, don’t be surprised if prices snap back just as quickly.

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