We kicked off the day with more Fed Speeches than reports starting with Fed Williams Speech at 5:15 A.M., Fed Barr Speech at 5:45 A.M., Fed Kugler Speech at 7:30 A.M., Fed Goolsbee Speech at 9:00 A.M., Fed Waller & Fed Williams Speech at 10:30 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Counts at 12:00 P.M., and Fed Cook, Fed Hammack, and Fed Musalem Speeches at 6:45 P.M.

The average rate on 30-Year fixed mortgaged backed by Freddie Mac was unchanged for the week at 6.76%, and 0.33% less than a year ago. This marked the 12^th consecutive week when rates were below last year. The average rate on a fixed 15-year fixed mortgage was unchanged at 5.89% and was 0.49% under a year ago. The recent decline in rates has been an uptick in mortgage demand. However, in the last 3 years, mortgage demand has been deeply depressed and at some of the weakest sine late 1990. At the same time, home prices continue to rise amid tight inventories. According to to indexes from the Atlanta Fed and the National Association of Realtors, home affordability is the worst since the late 1980’s as median home price is barely affordable for the median US income producer.

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US Weather Pattern Update

Central US Forecast OK Next 10 Days; Details of Late May Precipitation Important:

The Central US forecast is consistent, and corn, soybean, and spring wheat planting will be rapid into May 19-20. This week’s drought monitor has changed a little since the previous week – dryness expanded slightly in NE and IL but contracted in TX, NM, and OK. Moisture concerns are confined to NE, SD, and Mexico. Widespread warmth and dryness will blanket all but the southeast into May 18^th . High temperatures in the 80’s will be common. Max temperatures in the 90’s are possible next week in KS, NE, ND, SD, and W IA. Plant emergence will be speedy. Extended range forecasts maintain the return of rainfall to the E Plains and Midwest in 12-15 day period, but confidence in details is low. Rain will be needed as abnormally high temps accelerate moisture loss across the Western Midwest. NE, the Dakotas, and NW Midwest are viewed as areas to monitor as summer approaches. Drought in The Southeast US is fading amid the coming heavy rain.

Corn Comments & Analysis

CBOT Corn Stays Weak But Ends Above Session Low; Speculators Going Short Corn:

CBOT corn futures firmed into the close. Ag Resources (ARC) notes contracts touched oversold levels as considerable bearish news has been digested. Rapid planting progress in the US, Ukraine, and W Europe is no longer fresh news. US corn remains highly competitive in world trade into July. At $4.50 July corn futures and $4.35 December, the price downside risk is limited pre-pollination to no more than $.10. However, the next CBOT rally needs to be cash-led by tightening supply. US corn export sales week ending May 1^st totaled 65 Mil Bu, a full 57 Mil above the pace needed to meet USDA's annual forecast. Enlarged US corn demand from Mexico & unknown destinations continue to build. There has been discernible seasonal decline in US corn sales. After a trade deal inked with the UK,  with many other countries searching a fair deal, which could be key to a rise in US corn & ethanol even further. Final US exports are projected to reach 2.7 Bil Bu. 24/25 end stocks are forecast to drop below 1.4 Mil. A recovery from oversold technical levels lies ahead in today’s action. It’s known that the USDA will peg new crop US end stocks at 2.0 Bil Bu, but it’s Mother Nature that will drive price discovery over the next 90 days. The final US corn yield in the past 6 years was less than the May WASDE forecast. The 2025 crop is just out of the seed bag!

And finally, Financial Juice just reported, India offers to slash the tariff gap with the US under 4& from nearly 13%. We will see where these negotiations move forward The Art of the Deal!

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